We know exactly when government debt is too much

How Much Debt Is Too Much?

Foreign buyers of government debt see this chart:

Those are excess profits taken by the central bank due to the monopoly effect.  Note Janet put a stop to it in 2015.

This remit tax has to accommodate the insurance costs of FX exchange, which is near one point.

We see the result in trade weighted dollar, down to 2018 levels.  That means foreign investors would rather not buy Treasuries, but pay the FX insurance costs and hold reserves.

Critical imports, like oil, suddenly rise in price as the Treasury market loses liquidity.  Then we get sudden stops. One can see this in velocity as lack of velocity means more sudden stops.

Investors see another one of these charts extending ten years, foreign investors are looking increasingly to shadow banks to evade the cost of Treasury remits. 

The Godot analysts will miss this as they assume the treasury market is 'complete' (meets the Euler conditions and will be smooth).  Sandboxers know more about market structure and liquidity.

Covid effects: The sudden stops are mostly voluntary, on the part of government and private sector. There is no stimulus, as we will continue the sudden stops for another two months. One of the reasons is that no one wants to be in the Swamp and get covid. And none of the teachers want to be in school and catch it. So it is not stimulus, it is financial intermediation. We do not have a covid market where we can execute a pandemic insurance clause, our financial system is once again thin, and it is thin because of the chart above. Having government solve a banking problem is unlikely as government remits are making it much worse.