Monday, November 10, 2014

Fed monetary policy is DC centered, not necessarily low rate

A lot of blogs are talking about the John Hussman analysis,  Mish and Zero Hedge, for example. John seems correct to me, but John's definition of terms seems inaccurate. When the Fed did QE, that turned out to be a curve steepening policy, long term rates rose.  When the Fed set interest on reserves, that was set above the current private sector overnight loan rate.

The Fed's main policy error is being DC centered, its member banks subject to regulation, the bank itself is too aggregated, and government debt has caused a debt cartel to form.

John may be right, the Fed should raise the rate on overnight reserves, but John fails to mention that is about the only action left for the Fed.  It has never really been the case,in the Fed's history, that the overnight reserve rate was a benchmark rate  and the effect of raising it is likely to be dominated by regulations and debt from Congress.  John may have simply identified a problem in which the damage has already been done a long time ago.

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