John W. Schoen at CNBC needs to look at the data before speaking

He says: Since the Great Recession lifted nearly four years ago, the economies of the developing world have been slowly getting back on their feet. The recovery has been fueled in part by massive monetary stimulus, chiefly from the U.S. Federal Reserve , which has pushed interest rates lower, and for longer, than at any time in its 100-year history.

OK, lets look and see if the Fed really pushed down rates leading through the crash.

The red line is the effective funds rate, the blue line is the target. Now, let's guide Mr. Schoen's eyes to the drop in rates from 2007 to 2009.  Explain to us why the blue line is always to the right and above the red line?  Is it because the Fed was chasing the market down hill? Yes, indeed it was. In fact, Ben was selling short term securities on the way down, trying to stabilize the drop.

Since then, the Fed has kept the deposit rate above the one year Treasury rate and above the market based overnight rate. But both the latter rates are held to zero by the market, Janet is doing nothing to suppress rates.

In fact, the Fed has very little power to raise rates at the moment, except to raise the deposit rate on reserves.  Will that raise the lending rates? I doubt it, most likely it will simply cause reserves to rise. The last time the Fed actually raised rates was in 1980 when Volcker raised the reserve requirements.

So, a message to  economists everywhere, you have to look at the data before speaking.  You just cannot assume the Fed has some knob it turns; nor can you assume the magic of expectations and forward guidance.  Actual evidence is required.