Economists can't find out where they are! They are the blue line of unemployment. The green is New York for comparison and red is aggregate unemployment. So we see the long term unemployed sitting in Illinois, the fourth largest state in the union and the major transportation hub of America. Economists can do aggregate regression all they want but the error bars will be enormous when Illinois contains this many long term unemployed.
Why does the major transportation hub of America suffer long term unemployment?
The most immediate answer in the first rise of Apr 2011, was the day the stimulus drove oil prices back to the moon. The second happens to coincide with another rise in oil prices. Illinois finally got back on track in Feb of this year folks. That was when oil prices finally deflated.
The second reason is the pension problems and the resulting taxes needed to cover them. So we have two major causes, all of them Keynesian in origin. Waddya know? Ya think the Keynesians will actually find the problem? Don't bet on it, they will debate error bars from here until they retire, so forget about any of those bozos finding a thing.
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