What broke the Camel's back?
Romer, doing Ito's calculus where it was not valid. The boneheads started taking expectations at the time, then treating that as a stochastic process squared, yet again, which is to much even for Ito's Calculus. The claim was Friedman did it in his book, and he was mostly wrong. Then it simply became a magic formula mostly considered trash in any sound statistics class. That whole branch of economists needs to be moved into religious philosophy.
Then the reading of tea leaves soon followed as described by Jon Faust:
First, I believe that the Fed now strives for “no tea leaves” approach to communication. The FOMC declares in its strategy document that it “seeks to explain its monetary policy decisions to the public as clearly as possible.” This is a dramatic change from the situation not so long ago, when speaking about the future course of policy was viewed, both inside the Fed and by most central banks, as a mortal sin. The transparency revolution began tentatively decades ago, with the FOMC offering occasional terse hints about policy. Interested observers justifiably gazed at the few words offered up like so many tea leaves, seeking to divine the future course of policy. Expertise in this form of divination was much prized on Wall Street.
The Fed is bound by estimation theory, the data they see at the time is no where near the data plotted years later. The nonsense is yet more of the expectation squared long after the fact.
No comments:
Post a Comment