Losses due to mal-function in the government channel

Real GDP growth going down

Easy to estimate.  The mismatch with four large hegemon states cause disruptions in some 10% of gdp, raising costs by 10% of flow, or 1% of GDP growth. That knocks off about 1/3 of the yield curve, giving us multipliers in the .6 range.

What is the clue? My second favorite president, Bill 'Hoover' Clinton, Delong's old boss. His policy proved the effect because his policy enabled stable real growth.  Delong will verify, Bill and folks were worried about the high cost of interest, as a percent of the federal budget, during a period of high growth. And right they were to be worried, interest costs did bulge, as a percent of budget, during the growth years. But Clinton dunnit and proved the cause and effect.