Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Picking through the California liability numbers

In the previous post, the new unfunded liability for public sector pensions was 24 billion.  But service costs and residual lost interest make this number double, say the actuaries.  This was caused by medical inflation, 4% and a flat stock market.  This year, the Q1 reset point, we have a 5% market correction and another 5% medical inflation.  That unfunded liability will go to $100 billion. Double it.

The undoubled number goes on  the local government books, quarterly, as required by accountants these days.  And the Kanosians did not notice? Sure they did, they have been pension stuffing at any opportunity, and calling it infrastructure.

But, back to the point.  Public sector labor growth is dead in  California, no local government can risk increasing payroll liability.  Yet, we are borrowing a billion and more to build schools, because of developer bribes.  The cheapest thing to do with the new schools is leave them empty.  So, you see, school funding has  gotten more fouled, not less. DC and the Children left behind crap is just as bad as always, the money just as mis-appropriated. the middlemen taking most.

Marin County politicians illegally padded the pensions.  The legislature instituted a weak an ineffectual reform. Taxes are up all around, and we are likely suffering a less than  1% growth at the moment.  This public sector will start a downward spiral this year, this quasi dictatorship will make the dollar recession worse.

Technology will bypass this whole corrupt mess, the efficiency gains are too great to pass up. Reform is hopeless.

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