Monday, April 2, 2018

I have suspicious chart

The PCE is smoother than the implicit.  The difference is part index, and part good pricing.  The index part because the  two indices non-stationary.  

Is it the fed smoothing PCE?  Maybe not, maybe the retailers are damn accurate. Retailers are the lowest margin, their values added is warehousing.  It might be an imbalance if we force the smaller  margin on retailers over the complete sequence. We get sudden margin squeeze across retail sector at once then deliveries unaffordable.  

This is where we get Amazon outrage because the important post office subsidy expands Amazon margin  possibility. Retailers still paying market, commercial delivery rates. The imbalance cannot last, we get sudden retail collapse requiring ever more Amazon subsidies to keep goods flowing.

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