Monday, April 2, 2018

Recessions are a net loss?

MACROECONOMICS: HOW LARGE IS THE SHADOW CAST BY RECESSIONS?

Or, putting it another way, did the zombies pile up or get dispersed?  

Each recessions involves guv making bailouts and accumulating debt, and the debt eventually discharges, one way or the other.  Is the result a net positive or negative?
I dunno, but the ones marking to market today are not the ones  who estimated yields 40 years ago.

Let us do our generational clearing of the books. Just make sure we got sandbox first such that we get an accurate  marking.

Let me guess, however.  20% of GDP us our error over the generation.  I actually call that pretty good compared to 1932. And so far we are not carpet bombing rice farmers, except the middle east. 2030% of GDP  We understand the process much better, we dunnit twice in living memory.

So, let us suffer a devaluation process, it is fairly mild and the mark to market is efficient,  the cash infusion justified, the reverses occurring over a ten year span. Give the millennials a fair shot. But sandbox puts guv programs on cash accounting. Like most other moments we have money tech interacting, no big deal. But the tendency is always more accurate finance  processes.

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