Monday, February 10, 2020

Mish digs up the horror story

50,000 New Coronavirus Infections Per Day in China

Accoring to Prof. Neil Ferguson, Vice Dean Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College in London :
  • 50,000 new cases a day in china
  • Infections doubling every 5 days
  • Death rate is still unknown
  • China likely to peak in March
  • Epidemic peak is still a month away
  • It will be very hard to control this epidemic the say way we did with SARS 15-20 years ago
  • Cases are always underestimated
  • Death delays are as long as three weeks
  • Reported deaths outside China are not reassuring because of delays
  • We still don't know the full effects
The virus has fouled out economic indicators and the stock market is a bit lost.  I guess that is why we call it a Black Swan.

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