Monday, February 3, 2020

This time is the same as last time

Fantasy Fiscal Policy
It is precisely because fiscal policy inevitably involves messy, hard-fought compromises – often overturned by future elections anyway – that most countries have turned to central banks for short-term stabilization policy. The modern, independent, technocratic central bank is arguably the greatest innovation in macroeconomics since John Maynard Keynes pioneered demand management. Governments can and should make the big decisions about the long-term direction of policy, but anyone who thinks that legislatures can consistently make fine-tuned decisions is living in an alternative reality.
Concluding with:
The right solution is not to cast aside monetary policy, but to find ways to strengthen its effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment, possibly by finding ways to use negative rates more fairly and effectively. Until then, with monetary policy hampered and fiscal policy the main game in town, we should expect more volatile business cycles. 
In other words, the right and left wing are loco. Both thing they can spend their way out of recession.

He misses one central point, as do most economists:
Fiscal policy takes the lead in fundamental but hugely contentious issues – concerning growth, long-term stability, and allocation – that need to be decided in a democratic fashion, at least in advanced economies. 
We are not a proportional democracy, not a democracy in any sens of the word.  Hence, we have sudden stops and sudden changes in regime.   The EU has the same problem.

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