Russia inherits the mongol invasions. The state is not liquid enough to extend rule across asia. So Russia still endures invasion from the east, in the form of Stalinism.
The vast majority of western russians do not like stalinist invasions. They prefer the EU model, as does most of Belarus and Georgia. Putin is fading into the night and the warlords have no leader. I would not be surprised if a military forces Russia back to politburo. Rule by committee for a transition.
Russian columns are stymied. I see more and more pauses for humanitarian, de facto ceasefires. The post Putin regime is already under pressure to appoint more industrial insiders to key posts. Rule by committee, they want veto power over any Stalinist attempts to take over capital assets. They keep the foreign minister and force him to a deal in Ukraine to lift sanctions
The endogenous desire to maintain EU trade in eastern Europe is too great. Stalinism is about the last gasp of a political leader, they promise too much to the mongol war lords and endure European resistance.
The new president will be a puppet of the insiders. Russia may adapt politburo rule for quite some time and be quite fine as long as EU trade continues. The insiders have a never again attitude as they got Black Swanned the worst of any Ruskies.
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