Thursday, February 5, 2015

John Cochrane is a good read

Here he cites a paper that makes an astounding discovery, folks spend less when prices are rising. He comments:
RĂ¼diger Bachmann, Tim Berg, and Eric Sims have an interesting article, "Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence" in the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy.
Many macroeconomists have advocated deliberate, expected inflation to "stimulate" the economy while interest rates are stuck at the lower bound. The idea is that higher expected inflation amounts to a lower real interest rate. This lower rate encourages people to spend today rather than to save, which, the story goes, will raise today's level of output and employment.

As usual in macroeconomics, measuring this effect is hard. There are few zero-bound observations, fewer still with substantial variation in expected inflation.  And as always in macro it's hard to tell causation from correlation, supply from demand, because from despite of any small inflation-output correlation we see.
Here is how to account for the effect. Forget the fraction, dollars appear in the numerator.  Instead focus on the utility of having InknPaper to count things.

How high is the utility of counting stuff?

Imagine Minnesota, you need to count the number of houses, the number of people and the amount of food stored.  If you count badly you become an ice cube or a California homeless person.

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