Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Here is one where the economist almost gets it

Growth economics is examining growth rates over different extended periods going backwards, a good idea.  The char on the left is the last chart showing the point where the backward trend seems to have settled. The post says:
The U.S. seems to be moving along the same balanced growth path it always has.


That is correct, but he could say more.    First: We humans do not measure decay, like used furniture, using a double entry accounting, so we can skip the decay process and acknowledge that missing component, just not measure it.  Fine.

But, second: Growth results from what we humans measure when we exchange. Our brains operate just like any other natural process and has a finite order estimation of optimally divergent processes, we are about a 6th order binomial process in our accuracy.  The economy does log add with the same precision as our brains, and if you look back long enough one can cancel the equilibrium and discover a Bell curve that looks like a 6th order binomial.  It is not that we are all the same 'smart' its that the optimum precision of the economy is about the median precision of the average brains.

So when measuring back far enough, until the line is linear, then you can pick apart the spectral components of the variation.  If you know the dimensionality of our collective binomial, then one can derive 'time' from the thing and make a universal yield curve.

No comments: