Friday, February 27, 2015

The ECB QE thing seems bizarre

The European Bank intends to buy bonds on the open market, they think it increases inflation.  Private investment banks are not selling because they carry high yield bonds, purchased from Euro governments when rates were high.  These are worth too much now that deflation has set in and rates are low.

So who is going to sell the ECB bonds?

Governments, of course, the same governments who own the ECB by the way. One of these governments, Germany is running a surplus and has no need to sell bonds.  The other would love to get bonds at subsidized rates. The ECB intends to sell these to countries based on GDP and population. That ratio is likely to be the same as the ratio by which governments own the ECB, here:

Deutsche Bundesbank (Germany) 17.9973
Banco de España (Spain) 8.8409
Banque de France (France) 14.1792
Banca d'Italia (Italy) 12.3108


So the buyers and sellers sit at the same table, in proportion. Are they going to just set the rate to zero and take their share of the ink and paper? What a game this is going to be.  Germany will easily agree to let Italy have some of its share, for a rate above zero, since Germany then earns the rate in proportion. The net result being that Germany ends up taking 18% of all the interest rate subsidies, at market rates. These will be long bonds, so Germany's share becomes a savings account, paying something like 2%.  The other governments end up with loan rates at something like .5%, with retained earnings; still a good deal.

What will Spain, France and Italy do with the money? Benefits to pay off the leftist anti-euro parties, which is almost certainly a deflationary investment.

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