Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Yet another Krugman

Krugman: Remarkably, nobody seems to have laid out exactly how a Greek-style crisis is supposed to happen in a country like Britain, the United States, or Japan – and I don’t believe that there is any plausible mechanism for such a crisis.

 Here is a starter, the change in interest payments from quarter to quarter.  Does anyone, other than a blind UC Berkeley professor, see anything odd?







And does anyone see any sign of internal devaluation in this chart?










And, naturally this chart.  Anyone notice that peak in 1985 when the major economies had to intervene in the currency markets to forestall a protectionist move in Congress?

Or, see that peak right at the end there? You know the peak that corresponds to almost negative interest rates.  Where have we seen that before? Oh  yes, right before the 1981 crash and right in the middle of the 2008 crash. Looks like a Black Swan to me!

And this:

MarketWatch: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is preparing to charge large institutional customers for some deposits, citing new rules that make holding money for the clients too costly, according to a memo reviewed by The Wall Street Journal and people familiar with the plan.
The largest U.S. bank by assets is aiming to reduce the affected deposits by billions of dollars, with a focus on bringing the number down this year, these people said. The move is the latest in a series of steps large global banks have been discussing in recent months to discourage certain deposits due to new regulations and low interest rates.
And, let's not forget an important fact.  Note the appearance of those Grey bars in each of these charts.  You can also see them on the chart to the left, courtesy of @Not-Jim_CramerWhen do they appear? Why, right around the eight year election cycles, with a probability of something like 85%. Wow, some sort of coincidence having to do with our own currency.

Then there are the two major monetary regime changes, the 1932 change and the Nixon shock, about every 40 years. Hmm..., must be something about having a government controlled central bank.

Krugmans are an endless chore, I think the economics profession is devoting way too much time on this fellow.

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