Looks like the limit to me

From Calculated Risk, the four week average of unemployment claims.  Looks like we have reached the old equilibrium to me. See the dotted line? That dotted line more or less marks the limit, and then we have our recession. The pattern will be simple. Inflation will rise to about 1%, from the current -.6%. The 1.5 jump is about all the economy can handle, so the economy goes into recession.