Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Martin Feldstein: Learn to read an XY graph

Martin Feldstein, quoted by James Pethokoukis

QE’s effect on demand in the US reflected the financial-market conditions that prevailed when the Federal Reserve began its large-scale asset purchases in 2008. At that time, the interest rate on ten-year Treasury bonds was close to 4%. The Fed’s aggressive program of bond-buying and its commitment to keep short-term interest rates low for a prolonged period drove the long-term rate down to about 1.5%.

The actual graph directly contradics Feldstein, the former liar for the great deficit spender, Ronald Reagan.  QE starts, rates go from low to high. Any fool looking can see Martin is simply a liar. Ten year rates are right where the monetary cycle predicts they would be, approaching zero as the Nixon Shock runs its course.

Martin Feldstein is also the Reagan Republican who started the catastrophic borrow and spend policies of the Republican party.

James Pethokoukis  seems to have the same problem Republicans do, inability to read a simple XY graph.
Let's look at real growth YoY and QE purchases. Do we see a real relationship between the rise in purchases and the change in real growth? Not really, nothing here would show up as significant.  There has been a slight overall tend for growth to go up, but that is mostly uncorrelated with QE purchases.  The whole claim about QE purchases was the rise in the stock market, and that was mainly to help California get out of its pension mess. So Martin and James can try to make that claim, but for them to appeal to macroeconomics simply demonstrates fraud and idiocy.  I am sorry, but James and Martin clearly know this, and its time to call out the economists for failure to learn.


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