Filling in the model

Yelp on Wednesday released its latest Economic Impact Report, revealing business closures across the U.S. are increasing as a result of the coronavirus pandemic’s economic toll.

As of Aug, 31, 163,735 businesses have indicated on Yelp that they have closed. That’s down from the 180,000 that closed at the very beginning of the pandemic. However, it actually shows a 23% increase in the number of closures since mid-July.


In addition to monitoring closed businesses, Yelp also takes into account the businesses whose closures have become permanent. That number has steadily increased throughout the past six months, now reaching 97,966, representing 60% of closed businesses that won’t be reopening.

Under conditions of perfect liquidity, the assumption would be that these business sell for subsitute uses or to new owners.  We have no perfect liquidity.

The question is, what would have happened is we have much better liquidity.  We do not know, except ex post, or alternatively, if we had a complete cycle.  If you connect the Lucas dots, and pretend, then at the start point, we assume all traders know about the business S/L market, the business loan business.  When that happens we have a trading pit that wants  a binomial model of he complete sequence.  Traders obtain some commutativity, the ability to re-order some events and minimize the risk path. That is risk minimizing, maximum entropy. 

The goal is to get everyone, in the Antificant fights, to have the same weapon, a contract manager which can get these relative values uncovered for everyone, before the looting. So the looter say to himself, 'Self, isn't this where I can shoes with credit"

They run around looking to burn, but each possible fire spot gets a reprieve,'Hey, not that one, They have a great sale tomorrow', and so forth. Never getting a consensus to light the fire.

It is kind of self fulfilling. When the kids grow up with a positive number on their smart card, their risk level grows. They all have the same S/L app, and can see the trading pit used by the whole neighborhood. The kids learn to interleave, that is patience, that is learning how to avoid long lines.