Saturday, September 26, 2020

Up to the willingness of banks to collect taxes

Governments can borrow more than was once believed
Hence only muted concern about borrowing to respond to covid-19 

The muted response is Wall Street avoiding the seigniorage tax.  The howls are regulated bans abandoning the retail banking sector.

If you ignore the seigniorage taxes then interest costs have jumped by 25%, more or less, since before Trump.  This is the typical recession pattern, repeatable indicating the government borrowing is part of the recession cycle. We are  crowding out.

Taxing banks and shutting down retail banking is not a multiplier greater than one, it guarantees that government borrowing results in a depression.

Milking our priors does not help. Here is the new chart after the accounting revisions at FRED:


 The blue line are reserves left at the Fed, and the higher that line goes the more Fed tax the regulated banks avoid. The difference between the blue and red results in remits, otherwise known as taxes, back to Congress. 

So we are playing the great game of avoiding that tax, and the regulated retail banks have the losing hand. No banking? Have a depression.

 

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