Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Krugman's real complaint

 We are dumping the ergodic assumption, or more properly, moving that up one layer to insurance, and ex post business. The ergodic assumption was the Samuelson, MIT trick which got us another 'This time is different'.

relating to or denoting systems or processes with the property that, given sufficient time, they include or impinge on all points in a given space and can be represented statistically by a reasonably large selection of points.

We are not that for two reasons, we can do superposition, swap between two different distribution functions.  And there is residual chaos, bound but chaos nonetheless. 

Ergodism is like godotism, it allows the economist to central plan, when given an infinity of optimizing selections. We got a finity of Congressional brains in a finity of government options, where finity is reduced to a small integer.

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