Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Interest rates are an outcome

Governing: In 2011 PIMCO made a bold prediction. It said that over the next several years central banks around the world, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, would keep interest rates at record low levels, but economies would grow much more slowly than before the Great Recession. This seemed to violate the basic laws of financial gravity, namely that lower interest rates are supposed to fuel economic growth. PIMCO called this contradictory state of financial affairs “the new normal.” Its prediction was mostly right, the phrase stuck and the rest is history.
Somewhere, likely MIT, someone invented the idea that the Yield curve can be manipulated by the Fed.    No, it was never really true.  The best the Fed can do is make money unhedgeable.  Money is a yardstick, and in aggregate statistics, the goal is to create the optimum yardstick, as an outcome.

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