Political Calculations said what!

Political Calculations:

At present, we're continuing to assume that the fiscal multiplier for the Fed's quantitative easing programs is approximately 1.0, in the absence of data that might contradict that figure.

Well here is some data. The blue is treasuries held by the Fed, the red are the excess reserves. They damn near match, so every dollar the Fed sent out to roam, the same dollar came back to park. How many more transactions did the Fed cause? You can see the wiggles in the red line, that is money moving in and out of the reserves.  How much money did the depository institutions allow to roam? About 12% of it, on average. That is not much roaming, not anywhere close to %100. The multiplier was near .12.

Here is the Fed Graph on changes in QE vs YoY changes in real GDP. They hardly correlate. I call horse manure on Political Calculations.