First let me talk about growth. People may not realise how strong recent numbers have been, particularly surveys. The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed manufacturing output rising at its fastest since July 1994, and orders at their most rapid since August that year. Britain’s factories “are booming again” said Rob Dobson of Markit, which compiles the data.David Smith notices:
The equivalent survey for construction, responsible more than any other sector for reducing growth last year, showed the fastest rise in construction output since September 2007. Construction, lifted initially by housebuilding, appears to be enjoying a broad-based recovery.
You cannot have a modern-day recovery without the service sector playing its part. Fortunately it is. Service sector activity in August rose at its sharpest pace since December 2006, with growth in new business its best for 16 years. It was, according to Markit, “a stellar performance”. Economics UK
The return of growth in Britain means the debate has moved into a new phase. The argument that has, often tediously, dominated over three years - whether or not George Osborne should abandon his deficit-reduction strategy and have a “Plan B” fiscal stimulus - now looks dead and buried.They evidently had the Keynesian debate, Dave thinks the un-Keynesians won. What does the British deficit look like from Trading Economics:
Looks just like the US deficit, you know, the one Krugman claims is too small. So evidently we have yet another moment in which the Christina Romer and Company are wrong about stimulus. Christina's problem is she has no concept of cause and effect, she thinks there is a random number generator in DC making policy in a vacuum.
Speaking of Romer, I did look at the relationship between Gold inflows and growth in 1933, growth started then gold followed, just the opposite of what she thinks. And no, I am not going to read her paper on SS benefit increases coming from a random number generator, they do not, and any results she has claiming to have found a random event in DC is absurd.
Keynes proven wrong, sorry. You want to know why world growth is happening now? My best guess is the world is relieved that the California Undemocracy has managed six months of sanity, out of 20 years of floundering. California is mainly composed of idiots, and any sign of modest brains in the state causes worldwide jubilation.
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