Monday, July 9, 2018

Internal and external tariffs

Let us take the simple model of a parliamentary, proportional democracy that issues and cancels tariffs  whenever it gets angry about something. I apply that to the US,. yuk, yuk.

Our parliament decided the rich are not paying for any more internal tariffs, so go look externally. An internal tariff revolt.  There is a bound, when the ten year yield hit 3.1%, it retreated very quickly and the external tariff war began.

That bound is caused by interest charges reaching abut 3% of real gdp, 600 billion if we include social security.  

Once the EMs are done repricing they are exporting against a 4-5% internal bond yield causing upward pressure on the US treasury yield and a moment of decision.

I am not scaredy pooh because the rates, 3.5%, which we have to cover is not like 1980 when rates went to 15%, we be better at it today.  We have room for currency devaluation done right.

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