Brad touts conventional wisdom

To be sure, the conventional wisdom among economists back in the 1990s was justified. Between 1957 and 1988, inflation responded predictably to fluctuations in the rate of unemployment. The slope of the simplest possible Phillips curve, when accounting for adaptive expectations, was -0.54: each percentage point decline in unemployment below the estimated natural rate translated into a 0.54 percentage point increase in inflation the following year.

The consumer price surge of the 70s was the result of a disorganized commodities market resultying from Nixon's sudden exit from the precious metals market.  It takes several year to rebuild markets after governments sudden shift. By 1985 we had disinflation, and continued to have disinflation until now.

Now we are posed to do another sudden, disorganized default and it will take several years of consumer price confusion before debt markets are rebuilt.

But it is OK, Brad, we will save you a spot to repeat conventional wisdom. 

However there is the odd chance that we might find six or so small state governors with IQs above room temperature. In that case we will not have a disorganized, disruptive default, we will have a group with commen sense in the middle of the default discussion, and we will do a much less volatile default.