I study cohort patterns in the labor market outcomes of recent college graduates, examining changes surrounding the Great Recession. Recession entrants have lower wages and employment than those of earlier cohorts; more recent cohorts’ employment is even lower, but the newest entrants’ wages have risen. I relate these changes to "scarring" effects of initial conditions. I demonstrate that adverse early conditions permanently reduce new entrants’ employment probabilities. I also replicate earlier results of medium-term scarring effects on wages that fade out by the early 30s. But scarring cannot account for the employment collapse for recent cohorts. There was a dramatic negative structural break in college graduates’ employment rates, beginning around the 2005 entry cohort, that shows no sign of abating.
I caught this article from Marginal Revolution blog.
A comment in there had the answer. The 2001 bust was scary and tech is not likely to want a repeat, so they have been careful to screen new entrants better. Boomers pile on, they kept their jobs in the bust, just like Jerry Brown's teachers in 2010.
We are meeting the Markov condition, reached the point where kicking the can is redundant and paths have been eliminated according to Boltzmann's Law. The issue is compressed to spin interaction, the generations have to make the Coasian deal. One more kick and the Antificants will seize control.
As their economic adviser, I see a deal, an improvement, not a cure. We can make this deal and be Pareto efficient.
Here is what old hippies and young antificants want. Slightly more efficient central government. So my change is minor, I introduce a long term, repeatable cash swap to the state capitals. It is at least worth a try. Once that consensus falls into place, then everything else follows, as increasing efficient follows.
The antificants end up with a slightly better process than the hippies done. We imp[rove the organization of loose N, make the aggregate get their accounts up to date before the Godot crowd arrives. This is repeatability, we want the antificants back at the table in 15 years, plus or minus.
After consensus on revenue sharing, the Fed contract is simple, done and actual creation of liquidity by getting a better estimate of N. The economies of scale then have less round off error on shipments.
We be fools to carry on with taxation without representation. You the small states make that deal, 15 year contract, more or less. Legally Congress is selling the right to coin in return for bond defaults. I can beat that in the Supremes.
What is in this for antificants?
Small state living, and the potential to learn something about governance. Not a bad trade, better than the hippies done.
Look atr American history and note my grand scheme has been applied over and over. Land grants, state college grants, taxation changes of major import; we dunnit, we been their as early as 1975 when revenue sharing was revived. This is a prefect opportunity to invest in better governance at the small state level. Mainly earned liquidity that gets them through the longer term generational overlap, a simple consensus abut value added chain.
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