Once in a decade for corporate debt to connect

Bloomberg:

Bloomberg

This is the gain achieved by buying corporate bonds just before the Fed stepped in. Now investors will not be expecting this until the next downturn after we recover, about ten years they figure. That means this chart becomes a binomial distribution and will be under sampled. The result will be to center this distribution such that all elements of the portfolio have equally centered binomials and are thus risk adjusted, or volatility adjusted. The interest rates that match the sequence will be the rates that force this 'weighted coin toss' top be a fair con toss. The investor is accumulating an interest expense as each term passes, the interest rate matched to make this a fair toss with enough trials needed to track the whole portfolio.

I should probably put equation to this, I can instead refer to equation one from this John Cocrane post. His very first equation, it is the standard method for collecting net present value.  The sum does not go to infinity in this case, the sum goes from Q1 2009 to Q1 2020, and the count is abut forty.  The  terms in John's sum are the terms of the estimated binomial from the sequence of events above. His Beta with interest accumulation carries through in the binomial terms and set the coin to fair.  This is the moment matching process behind options pricing. But the investor knows that market size is badly estimated and must sample often enough to account for changes in market size for any of the elements.