Probability of default is very finite and Bayesian

You have piling on, the paths to default limited.  Three, state scale breaks down, generational change and regular presidency cycle. The coincidence map is small. Queuing model, each of these have stress events arriving at rate.  You limit the pending stress to pile up enough to meet Shannon, it is stable, non adaptable. You need two stress events in a row from the same mode to call it a default. And you count all the paths to default. You are really matching mean variance on the centered binomials and meeting the condition.

Then you have unitless Bayes, but go back to the streams and find the proper units, and accounting rules get you accumulated losses relative to fix or six other items in your portfolio. Then fit the government bond in, and you should get a interest rate curve. Each of your portfolio will be -iLog(i), so you can make a yield curve coincidance map.

You have dumped time, add it in latter. Try to get the proper N, really streams of trades pairs and triples off the run times charts work great here. You will encode the streams to meet the stress rates.

Find data streams that clearly indicate stress.

Spin. Set it to one and count from total catastrophe to total catastrophe.  Round off, like combine WW1 and WW2, at first. Separate them later on another multiple spin Markov 3 tuple.  Between catastrophes, what 20 recessions? Four depressions?   Like a roving NBER recession rater, go through the pairs and encode their message, compress.  Examine how variant is the error term where the three cannot fill the channel and one is not -iLog(i).  Make a simulation, a monte carlo model that kind of fits one of your favorite governments. In the game, it is government v government to see who defaults the most with recurring round off sequence, hedged..

In the game, each player will have one, or more, Markov nodes under control and trying to expand N.  Players have a rotation, gets them to another node, possibly unblocked,. But it is a multiply to make the rotation, not and add.  Players can grab N from a top with a secret tunneling, mainly get a running start and to the coffee cup slosh. N can be jogged loose and you can collect it along some kinetic energy path. Kind of like fraud, bet we should include fraud and counterfeit services.  Players can play this on line, and we can add attachment hooks so the games include the trade for goods.  Each time a new pit deploys at or around one of the Markov node.