Wednesday, July 1, 2020

Research report

\Research report I found
Perhaps this lower discount rate for government debt increased its value, just as higher expected surpluses or growth would do

The total timeline, since 1980,  says today's discount rate is always greater than tomorrow's. Today might be the exception. The total timeline also says growth decreases under disinflation, until today that is. Today we are dealing with a fairly lengthy deflation push that might take two more quarters to exit. In real terms, the current rate on the ten year not might be worth holding in a deflationary environment. The cheap rats also include a bit of siegniorage tax avoidance, that otherwise hits the middle class banking account in fees and rates..

But that mostly assumes we have a complete cycle, and the data in the report likely misses out on the seven year post Nixon Shock. I didn't read it it, it was a vector moving average process good for flat periods.

The structural model says we have to go through an economy of scale translation. That means declaration of losses from the past.


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