Friday, September 4, 2020

Counting coin tosses

  In the equities sales, big tech never completely lost until yesterday.  That can be counted since civis, or can be counted since the interest cycle reversed.  That is a lot of con tosses.

If we took the big tech, as a number of arrivals, there are a group of five.  We can weight these socks, ex post, with a sequence of interest charges such that each becomes a fair coin. Bet them twice and get ten coin tosses for the series.  

Ex post, the number of significant coin tosses come to about one per quarter.   Ex ante the players have not yet seen the point where all of them drop. Accounting for that uncertainty is equivalent of under sampling, one and a half time rather then two time.

In Avogadro measurement, the physicists as ex poste, they get 2^79-1 and ex ante it is (3/2)^108-3/2.


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