Sunday, July 26, 2015

Inflation scare

Bloomberg: Landlords have been preparing to raise rents on single-family homes this year, Bloomberg reported in April. It looks like those plans are already being put into action.
The median rent for a three-bedroom single-family house increased 3.3 percent, to $1,320, during the second quarter, according to data compiled by RentRange and provided to Bloomberg by franchiser Real Property Management. Median rents are up 6.1 percent over the past 12 months. Even that kind of increase would have been welcome in 13 U.S. cities where single-family rents increased by double digits.
This doesn't show up yet on headline CPI? So this must be a sudden price change, an economy killer.

here is another clue. The one year Treasury earns .32%, while the ten year is down to 2.27%, the curve is flatter. Why? Its election time and DC doesn't want to pay the term premium, so its relying on the short term debt market to push the bills farther into election season. Remember, Jan 2016, DC gets a huge Obamacare bill. What happens to inflation when the curve flattens? That is the debate ongoing, and now we wait and see.  

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