Monday, June 18, 2018

Inversions in global economy

Within the past two months, the yield on an ICE Bank of America index of government bonds due in seven to 10 years has fallen below the yield on an index of bonds due in one to three years for the first time since the first half of 2007. The strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. said they were seeing the same thing in indexes they manage. Although the U.S. economy is in solid shape, there have been signs of weakness in the euro zone, China and emerging markets over the past month. A Citigroup Inc. index shows that worldwide economic data is missing estimates by the most since 2013. And within the past few weeks, both the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that although tax cuts and fiscal spending were boosting the U.S. economy now, those moves are increasing risks to the global economy by causing debt to rise and potentially stoking inflation and the dollar.
The US cebt cycle is determined by government actions and is not coherent with any global trade. So, when your consumer economy is nearly a monopoly, the supplying economies will be quite out of phase with the US Senate and presidential regimes. We get foreign investment having to be times toward repub debt growth.

Repubs (and Dems) should be nearly predictable by now. There is no reason foreign traders should have missed the regime change in the US guv.

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