Tuesday, October 15, 2013

I think policy uncertainty is increasing growth


OK, I have real gdp dropping on New Years Eve, 2011. But uncertainty is the lowest.  Growth then rises with uncertainty. Growth then peaks just second half, 2012, policy uncertainty slightly elevated, and rising. Then, New Year 2013, gdp low, after the tax changes, policy uncertainty high. The pattern finally matches, except that growth was on its way up. Menzie sees it differently.

Policy uncertainty is a sign government getting a clue, that is a good thing, it promotes growth.

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