Tuesday, January 5, 2016

One revision which gets us a Blue Bar

Oops! The Feds Screwed Up 10 Years of Housing Data
MSN: Economists and analysts who have in the past decade found themselves puzzled by the U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly survey on the construction industry may have just been vindicated. In a release of its estimates for the month of November, the Census Bureau on Monday included a footnote indicating that it had restated each of its monthly estimates going back to January of 2005.

This author puts the GDP cost at about a quarter point.  Mish had it at a half point.   Either revision  puts Q4 close o zero, with a rising unemployment rate.  The Baltic dry index has also dropped to record lows.  California growth in  Q4 is likely a half point. Absent a Chinese home buying surge, the Blue Bar is here.

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