Call it a bailout and get the same results

Regional Consumption Responses andthe Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier

They measure the effect of the Obama stimulus on counties, including all the collective trade.  How do we interpret their multiplier  greater than one?  Many counties, especially in large states, were in financial straits, needing a federal bailout.

But the counties are now right back nearing financial stress, the gains were not sustained.  The hired were mostly on government payroll

Here is california state and local employment. It was this labor force that got augmented in the stimulus.  We can see california had a huge  swing, and maybe got a bit of help, on the way down.  But the overall trajectory barely budged by stimulus.  The help on the way down was a bailout.  The study measures a horrible government mollified by a  horrible government, an adjustment to allocate horribleness.