Nor unpredict it.
The most likely outcome is a few quarters of growth below 2%, a bubbling along close to zero as we adapt to long term deflation. I say that because the ten year was trending to something like 2%. A smooth ride into deflation with a lower bound, like a half point. The big shock is over, the Nixon Shock, it has settled, energy and prices should resort to neutral over the complete sequence. That would be the outcomes of double entry accounting done right, and we are close enough to right.
So an economy headed for a well predicted deflation will at various times and places drop a near zero growth without triggering the blue bar.
No comments:
Post a Comment