Tuesday, December 31, 2019
But it is a low cost strategy
“The attack on our embassy in Baghdad is horrifying but predictable,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) tweeted. “Trump has rendered America impotent in the Middle East. No one fears us, no one listens to us. America has been reduced to huddling in safe rooms, hoping the bad guys will go away. What a disgrac."If we huff and puff the way Chris Murphy wants then expect another fewt rillion in military expenses, and Calizuela is not going along. So Murphy supporters get ready for a tax hike because Chris Murphy now needs more taxes. Just tax Cnnnecticut.
Keeping the map
First Trans Person to Obtain Legal 'Non-Binary' Sex Status Changes Back to Birth Sex in Blow to LGBT Movement
In a multi-gendered world with complete transformations there can be no map. Any backward path would be unknown, or more precisely, should be neutral to the party.
The more interesting case is the gender traveler that retains the map. They can hop between gender nodes, close the loop in the map and always point back to the start. However, at no point has the traveler been completely regendered. So does the traveler become, ultimately, genderless by traveling among the options?
In a multi-gendered world with complete transformations there can be no map. Any backward path would be unknown, or more precisely, should be neutral to the party.
The more interesting case is the gender traveler that retains the map. They can hop between gender nodes, close the loop in the map and always point back to the start. However, at no point has the traveler been completely regendered. So does the traveler become, ultimately, genderless by traveling among the options?
NY Jews might disagree
Linda Ronstadt: Trump is 'like Hitler, and the Mexicans are the new Jews'
And California Rednecks suffer under failed Hispanic State. Racists pricks everywhere, including Linda, evidently.
And California Rednecks suffer under failed Hispanic State. Racists pricks everywhere, including Linda, evidently.
CBPP v Cuomo
Repealing “SALT” Cap Would Be Regressive and Proposed Offset Would Use up Needed Progressive Revenues
CBPP is a policy priors institute of the leftwards, Dean Baker territory.
And Cuomo wants those ttxes back, they were his progressive taxes and Trump stole them.
We been here, done that. What we have is a long and protracted tax battle, add in the prop 13 revision in California. The battle is smack dab in the election fight. It is wobbling the Pocahontas campaign already. Outcome is a last hour deal, as usual. A sudden, and expected, tax transaction cost for all.
Not a sudden stop, we are setting aside reserves. I am selling a small commercial property, I allow for a 2% regulatory risk right now, on discounted value. 2% is the maximum tax impact on property values, in the worst case. This is not a sudden stop for me.
CBPP is a policy priors institute of the leftwards, Dean Baker territory.
And Cuomo wants those ttxes back, they were his progressive taxes and Trump stole them.
We been here, done that. What we have is a long and protracted tax battle, add in the prop 13 revision in California. The battle is smack dab in the election fight. It is wobbling the Pocahontas campaign already. Outcome is a last hour deal, as usual. A sudden, and expected, tax transaction cost for all.
Not a sudden stop, we are setting aside reserves. I am selling a small commercial property, I allow for a 2% regulatory risk right now, on discounted value. 2% is the maximum tax impact on property values, in the worst case. This is not a sudden stop for me.
The police aren't doing that much murdering
Lori Lightfoot urged Chicago police to close out 2019 with fewer than 500 murders
Tell the mayor someone else be murdering.
Not really
Barry Eichengreenb is going string pushing at Project Syndicate.
The Policy Debate Europe Needs
Adjusting the generational overlap won't happen with fiscal stimulus on the docket, and that overlap function will be as neutral as possible, if it is to become law. France, for example, should expect a full year devoted to negotiations on the issue, in seriousness. Otherwise their 1.5% growth cannot continue as transportation networks shut. Germany is no self stimulating and they are just above zero growth. And illusionary free money in Italy just results in chaos to their political system, a fight between who gets the money now.
In Britain one might make the case that Brexit need be funded temporarily on debt. That is a restructuring, a bet they are taking on the future. It must be assumed a positive stimulus by their proportional democracy, so they can borrow to cover restructuring costs.
We do not string push in the sandbox, we close the loops that string pushers create. Instead sandboxers find the congestion points and reconstruct and effective trading pit for the model. Europe is stuck, congested in the middle of generation overlap and that will take precedence. They are doing what Simon Wren suggests, engaging in generational overlap, it is an active verb. String pushing is being crowded out.
Get the order of things. The next generation does not pay the debt bill years away, they pay it the day after the generations overlap, the day the new pension formula is passed into law. Overlap is both a verb and an event, years to negotiate, then suddenly agreement,, payments start tomorrow at noon. That is not stimulus.
The solution to this conundrum suggested by ECB President Christine Lagarde is greater reliance on fiscal policy. By purchasing government bonds bearing negative interest rates, investors are literally begging European governments to borrow. So long as growth rates remain stuck at low levels because of anemic private spending, a bit of additional public spending is just what the doctor ordered. If the economy nonetheless sinks into recession, fiscal stimulus can be ramped up still further.The issue in France is pension payouts, they are having nationwide strikes over he issue. That is a generational transfer issue and there will be no fiscal stimulus in France until it is solved. That would be a ditto for Greece and Italy.
Adjusting the generational overlap won't happen with fiscal stimulus on the docket, and that overlap function will be as neutral as possible, if it is to become law. France, for example, should expect a full year devoted to negotiations on the issue, in seriousness. Otherwise their 1.5% growth cannot continue as transportation networks shut. Germany is no self stimulating and they are just above zero growth. And illusionary free money in Italy just results in chaos to their political system, a fight between who gets the money now.
In Britain one might make the case that Brexit need be funded temporarily on debt. That is a restructuring, a bet they are taking on the future. It must be assumed a positive stimulus by their proportional democracy, so they can borrow to cover restructuring costs.
We do not string push in the sandbox, we close the loops that string pushers create. Instead sandboxers find the congestion points and reconstruct and effective trading pit for the model. Europe is stuck, congested in the middle of generation overlap and that will take precedence. They are doing what Simon Wren suggests, engaging in generational overlap, it is an active verb. String pushing is being crowded out.
Get the order of things. The next generation does not pay the debt bill years away, they pay it the day after the generations overlap, the day the new pension formula is passed into law. Overlap is both a verb and an event, years to negotiate, then suddenly agreement,, payments start tomorrow at noon. That is not stimulus.
Monday, December 30, 2019
Shooting at schizoid Persians
Will It Be War? US Airstrikes Hit Iran-Backed Militias As Pentagon Warns More Military Action Coming
Israeli and USA are both into it a the moment.If manufacuring is productive it will consume domestic energy
Shale's Credit Struggles a Reminder of Fed's Inconsequential Nature
You cannot really be a value added economy, like Japan, and an oil exporter, like the USA. The two economies will not scale. The anti-connection will be tightest if you currency is the global reserve as that will be the pricing currency for commodities.
Thus, the fracking industry need be liquid, it needs to turn off and on, act as the marginal inventory. And that makes dollar futures impossible, oil hedging will congest the currency futures market. Fama Puzzle.
The formula is: Comparative advantage plus Fama information model means Fama Puzzle. The trick is congestion. comparative advantage means an exporter has excess inventory and can respond to currency futures with a liquid delivery contract. Comparative advantage thus squeezing the currency futures liquidity. Interest charges on currency bets will rise rapidly to the occasion, extinguishing the trade. If trade ever reached equilibrium, currency futures would be unpredictable white noise.
Currency speculators, like Soros, are really betting the central banks get stuck when attempting to hold an arbitrage open. Sandbox theory, congestion, structured queues all over again, everywhere in economics. Forensic accounting is a good name here.
Put simply, shale and “fracking” are only economic stateside insofar as oil is nominally very expensive. Translated, the dollar isn’t weak enough for fracking to be economic. Translated a second time, for fracking to make economic sense every other sector of the U.S. economy must endure the low-investment (meaning low growth) agony that is always and everywhere a consequence of a weak dollar. Which leads to a quiz of sorts: which were the two slowest growth, worst stock-market decades of the last 50 years? The easy answer is the ‘70s and ‘00s when the oil patch was thriving, but the rest of the U.S. economy was operating at a fraction of its potential. Weak dollar equals slow growth (investors are buying future income streams in dollars, get it?) because investment slows down.The article spends a lot of time on the Author's priors, then leads to this gem above.
You cannot really be a value added economy, like Japan, and an oil exporter, like the USA. The two economies will not scale. The anti-connection will be tightest if you currency is the global reserve as that will be the pricing currency for commodities.
Thus, the fracking industry need be liquid, it needs to turn off and on, act as the marginal inventory. And that makes dollar futures impossible, oil hedging will congest the currency futures market. Fama Puzzle.
The formula is: Comparative advantage plus Fama information model means Fama Puzzle. The trick is congestion. comparative advantage means an exporter has excess inventory and can respond to currency futures with a liquid delivery contract. Comparative advantage thus squeezing the currency futures liquidity. Interest charges on currency bets will rise rapidly to the occasion, extinguishing the trade. If trade ever reached equilibrium, currency futures would be unpredictable white noise.
Currency speculators, like Soros, are really betting the central banks get stuck when attempting to hold an arbitrage open. Sandbox theory, congestion, structured queues all over again, everywhere in economics. Forensic accounting is a good name here.
Right to a regulated militia
At a news conference Sunday night, Texas Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said the gunman was killed within six seconds of opening fire. Patrick hailed the state’s gun laws, including a measure enacted this year that affirmed the right of licensed handgun holders to carry a weapon in places of worship, unless the facility bans them.As a member of a Texas church, named after a highway in White Settlement Texas I wold expect, and demand, private regulated militia.
Jews have a slave mentality
They have been enslaved since forever and persecuted s salves. Their culture is devoted to surviving on the margin, they find arbitrage and close it. I it genetic? I kind of doubt it. I think if you leave the Kurds where they are another thousand years, in the crossroads of human migartions, they too will develop the marginal culture.
Genetic is whether and how much ice gen one has, and it has been widespread for eons. But cultures in the crossroads on the bridge get trapped, bottle necked. Most the Jewish cultural signs indicate prosperity is on the margin. Zionism means go home to Israel and trade on the margin. Absent Israel, they have no inventory base, their business too reliant on sorter term government regime changes.. Without the home they return to service slaves.
Genetic is whether and how much ice gen one has, and it has been widespread for eons. But cultures in the crossroads on the bridge get trapped, bottle necked. Most the Jewish cultural signs indicate prosperity is on the margin. Zionism means go home to Israel and trade on the margin. Absent Israel, they have no inventory base, their business too reliant on sorter term government regime changes.. Without the home they return to service slaves.
Sunday, December 29, 2019
The pit boss and probability moments
An encoder for a complete sequence retains skew, that is the whole point, remove skew against variance normalize noise. The two color pit boss is minimizing skew differences,equalizing the third moments of two difference distributions makes the hologram. The fourth moment is a dip in the distribution, a spectral point. The pit boss loses those, they are arbitrage moments, loops, in the generator. Add ing the third color, jumping the Markov tree should take out even the fourth moment.
I am a preindustrial fossil fuel user
In this pedestrian neighborhood.
If we call housing neutral, housing being around long before industry. Then judge me by my person use, relative to the main room i hang in. I use an uber drive for about 60 mils year. My room is period an shaded to eliminate air conditioning needs. I use at most two light bulbs for short periods, an one almost always. I use natural gas for cooking, which otherwise would be flared. Then there is this computer.
This is personal, my liability. Am I willing to suffer the 80 hours of extra hot hours I suffer yearly? In current prices it is out $800 dollars a year, each way. If I add retail cost of a simple solar outfit for this computer, I could easily see that industrial man owes me $400/year. Other may pay high pries at the factory, and my calculation may not be complete. But tort will force an equilibrium.
How does efficient tort work?
Damages are weighted by measurement uncertainty. It gets hotter to notice around here, and the measurements back me up. So my payout is obvious, the judge reaches an equilibrium, it is sandbox all over again. In he bargain we agreed on the existing 1.5 deg F rise, I will take it for $400 and a stop.
The relative pricing should not change. As the temps rise, abusers become more of a minority, the problem extinguishes in a collapse, probably closer to 2 degrees than my acceptable 1.5. Scientific certainty rises with temp. And, as things get hotter, toort rulings begin to set standards, energy measurement become lucrative. For a lot of folks in Canada, paying me my 1200 tort gains is worth the use of fossil fuel. They see a side effect, sightly warmer winters.
Property value in Florida
Depends on energy use. If I lived in a traditional house, consumed a similar room, on net, my life is ruined in Florida at2 2.5 deg rise. There is no sin in living pre-indusrial in Florida under pre industrial lifestyle. And if the polluters have a willingness to pay, like the utility of fossil ustifies for them , the my property losses are mostly compensated, under efficient tort. Nash and Coase together again, we have a trading pit and it selects global temperature, a thermostat, just like Uncle Milt talked about.
If we call housing neutral, housing being around long before industry. Then judge me by my person use, relative to the main room i hang in. I use an uber drive for about 60 mils year. My room is period an shaded to eliminate air conditioning needs. I use at most two light bulbs for short periods, an one almost always. I use natural gas for cooking, which otherwise would be flared. Then there is this computer.
This is personal, my liability. Am I willing to suffer the 80 hours of extra hot hours I suffer yearly? In current prices it is out $800 dollars a year, each way. If I add retail cost of a simple solar outfit for this computer, I could easily see that industrial man owes me $400/year. Other may pay high pries at the factory, and my calculation may not be complete. But tort will force an equilibrium.
How does efficient tort work?
Damages are weighted by measurement uncertainty. It gets hotter to notice around here, and the measurements back me up. So my payout is obvious, the judge reaches an equilibrium, it is sandbox all over again. In he bargain we agreed on the existing 1.5 deg F rise, I will take it for $400 and a stop.
The relative pricing should not change. As the temps rise, abusers become more of a minority, the problem extinguishes in a collapse, probably closer to 2 degrees than my acceptable 1.5. Scientific certainty rises with temp. And, as things get hotter, toort rulings begin to set standards, energy measurement become lucrative. For a lot of folks in Canada, paying me my 1200 tort gains is worth the use of fossil fuel. They see a side effect, sightly warmer winters.
Property value in Florida
Depends on energy use. If I lived in a traditional house, consumed a similar room, on net, my life is ruined in Florida at
My pappy called it the fist day of raccoon season
US launches airstrikes targeting Iran-backed militia in Iraq, Syria
In alternate order:
Ruskies shoot Turkish allies in North West, ISIS and Houthi like drones, Iran shoots Iraqi citizens, US bombs Al Qeida, Iran militias bomb US bases, Ruskie and Turks ae allies, Ruskis and Syrians are allies, Syrians bombs Turks, Kurd mostly trying to watch their step, Hezbolah v Israel drones,Iranian v Saudi drones, and Lebonan in full confusion.
Where is IBM Watson when you need it.
In alternate order:
Ruskies shoot Turkish allies in North West, ISIS and Houthi like drones, Iran shoots Iraqi citizens, US bombs Al Qeida, Iran militias bomb US bases, Ruskie and Turks ae allies, Ruskis and Syrians are allies, Syrians bombs Turks, Kurd mostly trying to watch their step, Hezbolah v Israel drones,Iranian v Saudi drones, and Lebonan in full confusion.
Where is IBM Watson when you need it.
A partial truth
Jill Lepore: These Truths: A History of the United States https://books.google.com/books?id=v2ZSDwAAQBAJ: '“It is imagined our Governor has been tampering with the Slaves & that he has it in contemplation to make great Use of them in case of a civil war,” young James Madison reported from Virginia to his friend William Bradford in Philadelphia. Lord Dunmore, the royal governor of Virginia, intended to offer freedom to slaves who would join the British army. “To say the truth, that is the only part in which this colony is vulnerable,” Madison admitted, “and if we should be subdued, we shall fall like Achilles by the hand of one that knows that secret.”64 But the colonists’ vulnerability to slave rebellion, that Achilles’ heel, was hardly a secret: it defined them. Madison’s own grandfather, Ambrose Madison, who’d first settled Montpelier, had been murdered by slaves in 1732, apparently poisoned to death, when he was thirty-six...We need to include the plight of impressed seaman, children sold into colonial america, forced religious migration, and all other aspects of primitive worker right in colonial times. legal, in additional to customary racism did not rally begin until long after the constitution. The founders were protecting their authoritarian limits on labor.
Racism and slavery are semi-orthogonal, in many cases the same races enforces slavery within itself. For example, no one would suggest that the union farm workers movement as about absolute slavery. But if you took the same California worker right to primitive 1750, then it look much closer to legal, racist slavery.
The cure for rural state suicides
Cash.
Those states get cash for one simple reason, they are states and there is nothing I can do about it.
I know the risk of trying other solutions. People in Montana should expect to prosper for one reason, the Document made them a state, they have 2% of share, and it is not changing. That is enough proof of life in Montana, take the cash, follow Due Process. And you shall prosper, except....
The House needs a return on investment and negotiates the cash dividend based on performance. So, not only to Montanans prosper, they have value in life, something useful to do; namely, make the programs work. Cash works, the small states get and deserve it legally. The whole point is to just get it done, once per budget, not many duplicated times.
Small state residents are not stubborn, they are victims of national scale, imprinted in the Document. They are neither guilt nor innocent, just stuck. We have no choice but to get them involved, walking the line on these programs, like Tester, good stuff. Let us pay them, cash.
It seems we had a lot of senators running for pres. Most of them earmarking themselves to popularity. Mot of that worthless in gaining program efficiency, most making it worse. No one walking the line.
Those states get cash for one simple reason, they are states and there is nothing I can do about it.
I know the risk of trying other solutions. People in Montana should expect to prosper for one reason, the Document made them a state, they have 2% of share, and it is not changing. That is enough proof of life in Montana, take the cash, follow Due Process. And you shall prosper, except....
The House needs a return on investment and negotiates the cash dividend based on performance. So, not only to Montanans prosper, they have value in life, something useful to do; namely, make the programs work. Cash works, the small states get and deserve it legally. The whole point is to just get it done, once per budget, not many duplicated times.
Small state residents are not stubborn, they are victims of national scale, imprinted in the Document. They are neither guilt nor innocent, just stuck. We have no choice but to get them involved, walking the line on these programs, like Tester, good stuff. Let us pay them, cash.
It seems we had a lot of senators running for pres. Most of them earmarking themselves to popularity. Mot of that worthless in gaining program efficiency, most making it worse. No one walking the line.
Counterfeiting the smart card
The smart card is your personal ledger. Standard plastic card, chip inside, battery operated.
The counterfeiter needs to get probes on those chip cells, and know the code to recognize when a 4 kilobyte secret code is accessed. To get at the chip, she needs to tear the plastic without triggering the protective destruct. So there is a pre drill through the plastic to grab the trigger wire and eliminate the threat.
This is a five thousand dollar job for a smart card that might have a thousand dollars in bearer digits. And, making it worse, as a pocket ID, it carries you photo, you need it to drive and shop, ther stolen cods reinserted into a perfect, blank smart counterfeit. The capital equipment involved is too exposed. The counterfeiter finds it is not worth the effort.
Plastic and silicon much easier counterfeit proofed than paper.
And the silicon adds intelligence of great utility in protecting the holder. A sturdy smart car with secure ID is worth about $150 on the market, it is a great simplifier. Open up huge opportunities for safe liquidity deployment for the holder. Low price, but it will outsell any future iPhone. It is really the next generation iPod. Many of us having more than one.
Also, allows policing of the drone traffic, an existential side effect. It makes all of us, individually, the anchors of the singularity. The AI brain will be pondering things we like. Smart phones will not win the smart contract battle. Money is that hard thing in your hand, the size of a rock, it protects you and talk to any cashier in the world. It manages your bots in the pits. Gets you current pricing everywhere.
Digital bearer cash, gold cash and paper cash all work the same, reach out and exchange by hand. Look the counter party in the eye (or secret key), reach out and tap cards.
The counterfeiter needs to get probes on those chip cells, and know the code to recognize when a 4 kilobyte secret code is accessed. To get at the chip, she needs to tear the plastic without triggering the protective destruct. So there is a pre drill through the plastic to grab the trigger wire and eliminate the threat.
This is a five thousand dollar job for a smart card that might have a thousand dollars in bearer digits. And, making it worse, as a pocket ID, it carries you photo, you need it to drive and shop, ther stolen cods reinserted into a perfect, blank smart counterfeit. The capital equipment involved is too exposed. The counterfeiter finds it is not worth the effort.
Plastic and silicon much easier counterfeit proofed than paper.
And the silicon adds intelligence of great utility in protecting the holder. A sturdy smart car with secure ID is worth about $150 on the market, it is a great simplifier. Open up huge opportunities for safe liquidity deployment for the holder. Low price, but it will outsell any future iPhone. It is really the next generation iPod. Many of us having more than one.
Also, allows policing of the drone traffic, an existential side effect. It makes all of us, individually, the anchors of the singularity. The AI brain will be pondering things we like. Smart phones will not win the smart contract battle. Money is that hard thing in your hand, the size of a rock, it protects you and talk to any cashier in the world. It manages your bots in the pits. Gets you current pricing everywhere.
Digital bearer cash, gold cash and paper cash all work the same, reach out and exchange by hand. Look the counter party in the eye (or secret key), reach out and tap cards.
"White Settlement" ,Texas?
West Freeway Church of Christ in White Settlement, Texas
A suburb of Fort Worth, with a church named after a freeway. You cannot make this stuff up.
One person died at the scene of the shooting, another died on the way to the hospital and a third remains in critical condition, according to the newspaper, citing MedStar spokeswoman Macara Trusty. The shooter is believed to be one of the three, Fort Worth Fire Department spokesman Mike Drivdahl told the newspaper, but it was unclear which one.
In a since-removed livestream of the Sunday service at the West Freeway Church of Christ, a figure appears to draw a weapon and fire twice before a second person shoots back, according to WFAA-TV, which said other armed congregants also rushed toward the shooter.
A suburb of Fort Worth, with a church named after a freeway. You cannot make this stuff up.
Earmarks are a loop
If the senators understood minimization of transactions, they would immediately get the earmark problem, it s an expensive extra step in legislation.
The senators, like any good CEO, would opt for the budgetary cash exchange, estimate the cost, do the deal beforehand. Then the loop is gone.
This is almost provable, one could take a large sample of bills and trace their path as in a spanning tree. Statistiacally, these are all complete sequences. Find their encoding to the probably error limit. You will see large skew in your encoding graph. Those are the spectral moments when each of these things runs the loop from House to Senate to House.
Good CEOs do this naturally, they watch for the minimizing patterns, and expose the loops. Forensic accounting, once again. That was Matt Damon's point in Good Will Hunting get the problem mapped to a graph without loops, then graph manipulations theories get you most of what you need. The scene where Matt and the mit prof were at the chalk board. Matt bounced a loop through a graph, becoming a factor in the eqution, the MIT prof getting to cancel out the denomitors to Matt's numerators.
It works Because Russel Crow found stability of graph conditions in A Beautiful Mind. He was watching pidgeons on the campus bench, wondering how they could collectively maintain the separation patterns. When the patterns are stable, then we can do graph proofs within a bounded error.
The senators, like any good CEO, would opt for the budgetary cash exchange, estimate the cost, do the deal beforehand. Then the loop is gone.
This is almost provable, one could take a large sample of bills and trace their path as in a spanning tree. Statistiacally, these are all complete sequences. Find their encoding to the probably error limit. You will see large skew in your encoding graph. Those are the spectral moments when each of these things runs the loop from House to Senate to House.
Good CEOs do this naturally, they watch for the minimizing patterns, and expose the loops. Forensic accounting, once again. That was Matt Damon's point in Good Will Hunting get the problem mapped to a graph without loops, then graph manipulations theories get you most of what you need. The scene where Matt and the mit prof were at the chalk board. Matt bounced a loop through a graph, becoming a factor in the eqution, the MIT prof getting to cancel out the denomitors to Matt's numerators.
It works Because Russel Crow found stability of graph conditions in A Beautiful Mind. He was watching pidgeons on the campus bench, wondering how they could collectively maintain the separation patterns. When the patterns are stable, then we can do graph proofs within a bounded error.
We need to reverse the formulation
Let me try.
Congress quit borrowing when we exited the blue bar. That was good for about a year, then what happened? Ask that question.
More drone
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Several Iraqi militia fighters were killed on Sunday in an air strike on their headquarters near the western Qaim district on the border with Syria, military sources and militia commanders told Reuters.Likely ISIS or Israeli drones.
The strike was likely carried out by drones and targeted the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah Shi’ite militia, the sources said. Ambulances were heading to the area.
So the Iranian commander claiming the ability to shoot down drones was bogus, a bluff. The Iranian Republican Guard does not yet have air to air combat drones. I doubt the US Military has them, Ruskies have an operational system. But you can bet your booties that we will be seeing some air to air drone combat in 2020. I am almost certain the Israelis have a system working.
The quantum field is a higher intelligence?
“I have a much easier time imagining how we understand the Big Bang than I have imagining how we can understand consciousness,” observes Edward Witten, theoretical physicist at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, New Jersey who has been compared to Isaac Newton and Einstein.According to this Princeton physicist.
I invented a humorous religion bout the idea of a background intelligence, but it was humor. The real answer is that consciousness is greatly overrates, most of what we do is based on unconscious actions. The exception is repetitive practice, and that is what confuses us. We mistake self training for a higher consciousness.
Iranian commander is a dumbshit
Spy crafts spotted near naval drill will be shot down - Iranian commander"
So, the Iranian commander wants to shoot down my one thousand dollar drone with a 100 thousand dollar missile?
It is a losing game. You will have the news organizations flying bots, teenagers flying bots. Israeli flying bots. Within a few days you will be bankrupt, idiot.
We will hit whatever spying craft in the war game zone, be it watercraft or aircraft, as we have proved having such a capability in the past."
So, the Iranian commander wants to shoot down my one thousand dollar drone with a 100 thousand dollar missile?
It is a losing game. You will have the news organizations flying bots, teenagers flying bots. Israeli flying bots. Within a few days you will be bankrupt, idiot.
New York Blacks v New York Jews
Democratic senator seconds Cuomo on New York attack: 'I think this was an act of domestic terrorism'
Just your standard New York racism.
Household production competes with the Fed
Three Theories for Why You Have No Time
Simple, the relative cost of hiring services incurs labor costs and fiscal taxes, as well as Fed seigniorage costs. Households have traditionaly cut services first during a downturn, and moving production in house eliminates transaction costs. Look at velocity, for example:
Velocity down everywhere. Households are surviving because of home production. Households are threatened by fedeal cost of government, and in large states, the state fiscal authorities keep services out of the home.
Look at the Treasury curve, falt on the front end. This economy is increasingly made of larger transactions done less often, an oil economy.
Let’s return to the original question: Why don’t Americans have more free time? In my experience, the debate over labor and leisure is often fought between the Self-Helpers and the Socialists. The Self-Helpers say that individuals have agency to solve their problems and can reduce their anxiety through new habits and values. The Socialists say that this individualist ethos is a dangerous myth. Instead, they insist that almost all modern anxieties arise from structural inequalities that require structural solutions, like a dramatic reconfiguration of the economy and stronger labor laws to protect worker rights.Derek Thompson for the Atlantic is wondering why household activities never cease.
Simple, the relative cost of hiring services incurs labor costs and fiscal taxes, as well as Fed seigniorage costs. Households have traditionaly cut services first during a downturn, and moving production in house eliminates transaction costs. Look at velocity, for example:
Look at the Treasury curve, falt on the front end. This economy is increasingly made of larger transactions done less often, an oil economy.
Preparing for government defaults
Central Banks Are Purchasing Gold at Record Highs. Why?
As reported by Dion Rabouin at Axios, an unprecedented shift toward gold has been led by the financial authorities of the world in what appears to be a move away from the US dollar.Even the BIS is trading gold derivatives. Two generations in recent memory have defaulted on government gold paper. And being on a market based currency simply shifts the issue to defaulting on government debt. The USA is headed in that direction.
The World Gold Council reported that central banks bought a historic high of 374.1 tons of gold this year. While this move accounts for only 16 percent of total gold demand, it offers an inside look into the minds of the central bankers. It was only seven years ago that a survey of economists revealed significant disagreement with regard to the potential benefits of a gold standard. Do central bankers not agree with leading academic economists or is a different motive at play?
Alaska didn't get the Space Cadet business
Widely viewed as the quintessential “Republican In Name Only,” the Senate Energy and Natural Resources chairwoman and senior Alaska senator, first elected in 2002, said, “we have to take that step back from being hand in glove with the defense” and charged that McConnell “has further confused the process” after House Democrats rushed to get the president impeached before Christmas.Trump should be thrown out of office on that expensive and worthless Texas earmark. The man is an idiot.
Saturday, December 28, 2019
Failed state in action
California cities struggle with implications of homeless ruling
Newsom is clueless, as is Trump.
Killing time with Jared Bernstein
Back-up evidence for WaPo piece on most important econ lessons of the decade
1) The unemployment rate can fall a lot lower than most economists thought without triggering inflationary pressures.
No, economists always knew the variable was employment to population ratio. Unemployment was simply a quick proxy that worked well until the boomers began retiring.
2) Budget deficits cannot be assumed to place upward pressure on interest rates.
The real lesson was that more debt yields less inflation which we discovered when the complete monetary cycle from the Nixon Shock was revealed.
3) Weak worker bargaining power has long been a factor driving inequality. In the last decade, the increasing clout of certain employers has joined the mix.
The biggest drive of inequality is government debt which is farmed out to the primary dealer system to bridge the liquidity gaps. This is mainly Krugman, Bernstein doing this, then covering up.
4) Progressive health care reform, wherein the government plays a larger role in coverage and cost control, works.
Complete horseshit. In fact, Bernstein and company lost four elections in a row because of the high cost of premiums under Obamacare. Then we have the massive rural nursing shortages, made worse by Obamacare.
Trickle down tax cuts are miniscule in comparison to the massive inequality caused by Bernstein and company via their misunderstanding of debt.
1) The unemployment rate can fall a lot lower than most economists thought without triggering inflationary pressures.
No, economists always knew the variable was employment to population ratio. Unemployment was simply a quick proxy that worked well until the boomers began retiring.
2) Budget deficits cannot be assumed to place upward pressure on interest rates.
The real lesson was that more debt yields less inflation which we discovered when the complete monetary cycle from the Nixon Shock was revealed.
3) Weak worker bargaining power has long been a factor driving inequality. In the last decade, the increasing clout of certain employers has joined the mix.
The biggest drive of inequality is government debt which is farmed out to the primary dealer system to bridge the liquidity gaps. This is mainly Krugman, Bernstein doing this, then covering up.
4) Progressive health care reform, wherein the government plays a larger role in coverage and cost control, works.
Complete horseshit. In fact, Bernstein and company lost four elections in a row because of the high cost of premiums under Obamacare. Then we have the massive rural nursing shortages, made worse by Obamacare.
5) [Lesson re-learned] Trickle-down tax cuts don’t work.
The world did not start in 2000
Expecting 2020:
But there’s unease, along with all the euphoria. The current economic cycle is already the longest in U.S. history and a recession looks inevitable in the new decade — which also will mark 100 years since the Wall Street crash of 1929.The BUSINESS NEWS article. The central bank solution is the same central bank solution we have used for 250 yeas. The Fed will help the government through a partial default. Every generation does it, it is no surprise, it is not a problem, it is a semi-regular event we all know about and prepare for.
And solutions may need to be unconventional, even more so than the extraordinary policies of negative interest rates and bond-buying that eased the post-2008 global funk.
With those policies maxed out, “in the 2020s it seems inevitable that a world of helicopter money awaits,” Deutsche Bank predicts.That would entail central banks or governments providing citizens with large amounts of money, as though it was being dropped from helicopters, a strategy rejected even by the unorthodox policymakers of the 2010s.Another radical option under discussion is modern monetary theory, when governments create and spend as much money as needed, so long as inflation stays low.“Central banks have effectively invited governments to experiment with more unconventional policies,” Deutsche said. However, those policies may pile up even more global debt, already at record highs.
Trump, you idiot
President Donald Trump on Saturday went after New York and California’s homeless issues, suggesting the state’s governors should "call and 'politely' ask for help," if they couldn't handle the problem. "California and New York must do something about their TREMENDOUS Homeless problems. They are setting records!" he tweeted.
"If their Governors can’t handle the situation, which they should be able to do very easily, they must call and 'politely' ask for help. Would be so easy with competence!" the president continued.
Now is not the time to ram through a massive housing bill through the layers of Congress. When your small state supporters realize how much of the nations resources you intend to send to the coasts, you will lose their votes. You are talking about hundreds of billions, likely more. Trump completely clueless about what he is proposing, someone teach the guy some math.
Hispanic failed state
Venezuela Is Fast Becoming World's Biggest Refugee Crisis
Pretty friggen obvious why politicians do not like racist Latinos political organizations. AOC comes from a failed state called Puerto Rico, and she has a hard time getting clues..
Pretty friggen obvious why politicians do not like racist Latinos political organizations. AOC comes from a failed state called Puerto Rico, and she has a hard time getting clues..
Schizoid Persian killerss
Iraqi group says 490 protesters killed since October
The United Nations has said it received credible allegations of deliberate killings, abductions and arbitrary detentions carried out by unknown armed men described as ‘militia,’ ‘unknown third parties’ and ‘armed entities.’ “Iraqi politicians have warned of infiltrators seeking to co-opt and sabotage the largely peaceful movement.Iran sees the protests as another in a long line of Arab invasions.
I have my doubts
Euro Forecasters See a World-Beating Run in 2020
After two years of setbacks, the euro is enjoying a wave of much-needed investor optimism as 2019 draws to a close.The forecast is likely based in the inverse correlation between oil prices and dollar value. But the prediction does not take into account our ability to frack. The dollar will drop, but the oil frackers may have already signed future delivery contracts to cover the dollar shorts. The prediction coming true, but the dollar shorts too crowded to make the profit..
The shared currency will rally more than 4% against the dollar in 2020 in the world’s best foreign-exchange performance, according to the median estimates of analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Forecasters see it benefiting from an improving global economic outlook and fading political tensions.
Betting on euro gains is among Morgan Stanley’s top trades for the new year, a view shared by analysts at UBS Wealth Management and Credit Agricole, among others. Options markets also signal improved confidence in the common currency, which touched a one-week high Friday as broad risk sentiment picked up on signs of improvingU.S.-China trade relations.
Friday, December 27, 2019
Newsom is delusional
“California is doing more than ever before to tackle the homelessness crisis, but every level of government, including the federal government, must step up and put real skin in the game,” said Governor Newsom. “California is making historic investments now to help our communities fight homelessness. But we have work to do, and we need the federal government to do its part.”Lost the ability of thought having spent his whole life carrying water for the failed staters.
For one thing they are racist pricks
Hispanic Voters Are Growing In Power. Why Are Democratic Presidential Candidates Ignoring Them?
Who do these Hispanic groups think they are fooling? The US is faced with a whole raft of failed Hispanic states to our south. We have the Democratic left pushing failed Hispanic state policies. We have a failed Hispanic legislature in Sacramento. The last thing we need are more racist failed staters, that would be a disaster.
When the Latino Community Foundation sent questionnaires to the Democratic presidential candidates asking where they stood on issues such as education, health care and immigration, the result was hardly what it anticipated: no response at all.The MySpecialRace Community Group? United SpecialRaceOfpeople in America?:
Even after the deadline was extended, nine out of 15 candidates didn’t submit answers, including former vice president Joe Biden.
When the League of United Latin American Citizens, the country’s oldest Hispanic civil rights group, invited Pete Buttigieg to events in Milwaukee and Des Moines, the South Bend, Ind., mayor declined. When the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials held a summit this summer, Biden and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) did not attend. Both passed on a second chance to address the legislators in the fall.
Who do these Hispanic groups think they are fooling? The US is faced with a whole raft of failed Hispanic states to our south. We have the Democratic left pushing failed Hispanic state policies. We have a failed Hispanic legislature in Sacramento. The last thing we need are more racist failed staters, that would be a disaster.
Making money in the numerator
World's richest 500 people saw their wealth jump 25 percent in 2019
The 500 richest are the marginal funders of Swamp debt, they are in on the debt planning. Hence these 500 always hve advanced information about liquidity available, they determine that number. By now this is a completely unsustainable. The debt to cover has grown to big for the 500 in charge and the primary dealer system will break completely soon.
In 2019, the world's richest 500 people saw their collective net worth jump by 25 percent or $1.2 trillion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index published Friday.Profits were mostly flat or down, but the primary dealer hedge was enormous as Trump ran up the debt machine.
Combined, the collective net worth of the world's 500 wealthiest individuals totaled $5.9 trillion. American billionaires alone added $500 billion to their wealth, with Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg gaining $27.3 billion and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates adding $22.7 billion.
The 500 richest are the marginal funders of Swamp debt, they are in on the debt planning. Hence these 500 always hve advanced information about liquidity available, they determine that number. By now this is a completely unsustainable. The debt to cover has grown to big for the 500 in charge and the primary dealer system will break completely soon.
Small state scaling problem
The rate of farmer suicide has been on the rise across the United States and Senators Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.) recently introduced the Seeding Rural Resilience Act to curb it. The senators want to spread awareness about mental health on the farm.And:
“Our bipartisan bill would empower people who are in a position to identify farmers who need help to get them help,” said Grassley in an op-ed on his website on Dec. 26.
The Iowa lawmaker said farming is full of uncertainties as it is at the “mercy of Mother Nature” and leads to sleepless nights and anxiety.
He quoted the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in his op-ed and said the rate of suicide is 45 percent higher in rural America than in urban areas.“Farmers have higher rates than the general population. A number of factors may contribute to the rural-urban disparity, including geographic isolation, distance from health care services, stigma associated with obtaining mental health care services, and financial pressures stemming from the downturn in the farm economy,” he said.Neither senator mentioned that our national programs do not work in small states, except for social security. Mental therapy does not help, what helps if senators getting clues. I will admit that Tester and Grassley are gettng clues about the problem, we need faster learning.
For example, what are these small states buying the Texas Space cadets? The last thing they need is dealing with Texas earmarks. They need to say no to the budget until the small state problem is fixed.
Central banks suffering Post Nixon Shock Syndrome
Signs Swirl All Around Us - The Monetary Reset Is At Hand
Central banks have begun buying gold, they take up about 16% of demand. No the BIS has been in the gold trading business with central banks for nine years.
When did central banks become aware of the risks? The zero interest rate policy was a clue, and the high seigniorage rates in the USA were the other clue.
The last significant memory of monetary reset was the Nixon Shock. But a few of the central bankers must be aware the the Nixon Shock was simply the latest monetary reset in a repeatable pattern. So they are preparing for the Brenton Woods type of monetary reset, a collective default engineered by central bankers.
What if bankers get a clue? Especially in the USA, it takes a real clue to default with the Constitution arranged against it. Without a clue a monetary reset just jams the courts and halt the economy. We have a race, central bankers are in a contest to see which banker gets a clue first.
Fake cover story
Pentagon Seeks AI Drone Swarms for Search and Rescue
The Department of Defense is looking for AI developers and drone swarm makers to help with search and rescue missions, Nextgov reports.This is more about swarms of ground attack UAVs.
The department’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, of JAIC, has issued a request for information from industry partners to “assist the Government in conducting market research, identify industry partners with emerging and promising technologies, and support the HADR Search and Rescue (SAR) drone platforms, sensors, edge Artificial Intelligence (AI) processing, and detection algorithms/models.”
Trump has no credibility
Navy SEALs Detail Eddie Gallagher’s Gruesome Alleged War Crimes: Report
Elite Navy SEALs who served in Iraq alongside Special Operations Chief Edward “Eddie” Gallagher told investigators they viewed him as an “evil” leader who committed what they considered to be obvious war crimes, according to newly released video and text messages obtained by The New York Times.This is the guy Trump pardoned. Now the soldiers have no credibility in their normal policing activities around the world.
Gallagher faced dozens of war crime charges stemming from his 2017 deployment to Iraq, but he was convicted in July on just one charge of posing for photographs with a dead ISIS fighter. In November, President Donald Trump fully pardoned Gallagher and gave him a promotion.
Sounds OK to me
Fairfax County Public Schools system is one of the nation’s largest with approximately 188,000 students. With close proximity to Washington, D.C., it doesn’t take much imagination to understand where the students will be protesting. It is being touted as the first school district in the nation to incorporate this policy. The policy allows students in seventh through 12th grades to have one excused absence each school year for “civic engagement activities”.I consider this to be legitimate activity for a student.
Critics will claim that this is about teacher issues and teachers will be dragging their students off to union protests. I think the opposite. When the teachers need the students on the picket line, they will find most of them have already spent their 'one day' of engagement. The teachers do not know this yet, but they will discover it soon as many students report their one day off.
I suspect most of the students will use their day of engagement to argue with the school board for more days of engagement.
Sandbox?
Russia's Central Bank Is Now Testing Real Asset-Pegged Stablecoins
"We are testing stablecoins in our regulatory ‘sandbox’. We see companies willing to issue tokens pegged to certain real assets. In our regulatory sandbox, we are learning the potential uses of stablecoins but we do not assume that they will function as a means of payment and become a surrogate for money .”The name has become official, we are recognized!
Thursday, December 26, 2019
Nope
Was Marx Right?
Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels did not claim only that capitalist development engenders its own contradictions, but also that those contradictions could be overcome only through the “forcible overthrow of all existing social conditions.” It is up to governments to carry out – and soon – the reforms needed to prove Marx and Engels wrong.The rebellions today are about debt repudiation, normal standard stuff each generation does it.
I had to happen
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The top U.S. aviation regulator on Thursday proposed a rule that would allow for remote tracking of most drones in U.S airspace.Now, how so we insure against counterfeits?
The Federal Aviation Administration, or FAA, said the proposed rule would require all drones operating in the United States to be compliant within three years.
Congress directed the FAA in 2016 to issue regulations or guidance by July 2018 to permit the public, the FAA, law enforcement and others to remotely track and identify drones and their operators during flight.
Wednesday, December 25, 2019
Our new carriers make great UAV refueling stops
A new transportation technology, trans Atlantic drone deliveries by bot flyers.
Place the large class carriers mid ocean, and anchor them. They become UAV refueling stops. Reuse the elevators for cargo loads and run a package resorting operation mid deck. The discounted cost of one of these carriers becomes 5 billion, the cost of similar operation in the middle of city. A 50% write off, but they start producing revenue much sooner. The automated transportation also serves military supply lines.
The advantage, the flyers do not deliver humans and operate safely mid ocean. The carriers can be places at the optimum switch point for packaging, yields great fuel savings. The carrier is a fuel depot, loaded from ships, not carried by air. Cargo capacity per wing surface goes way up. The catapult not generally. This becomes a civilian operation.
Place the large class carriers mid ocean, and anchor them. They become UAV refueling stops. Reuse the elevators for cargo loads and run a package resorting operation mid deck. The discounted cost of one of these carriers becomes 5 billion, the cost of similar operation in the middle of city. A 50% write off, but they start producing revenue much sooner. The automated transportation also serves military supply lines.
The advantage, the flyers do not deliver humans and operate safely mid ocean. The carriers can be places at the optimum switch point for packaging, yields great fuel savings. The carrier is a fuel depot, loaded from ships, not carried by air. Cargo capacity per wing surface goes way up. The catapult not generally. This becomes a civilian operation.
Susan Collins got a lump of coal
McConnell flexes reelection muscle with $1B gift for Kentucky
Cruz got the Texas Space Cadets, Senator Tester of Montana got a one million nurse training grant.
It seems unfair, stupid really. All the senators get one vote, and over half of them are GOP. Mitch and Cruz e likely to generate more anti-GOP votes. Susan is likely going to lose with her lump of coal in contrast. The Mitch earmark likely to be a campaign issue in her election.
Kentucky has a population of 4.4 million and climbing slightly. They benefit from the south west migration, especially Illinois exits. I put them slightly in the small state category, one of the 30 wise senators we need.
Kentucky has a population of 4.4 million and climbing slightly. They benefit from the south west migration, especially Illinois exits. I put them slightly in the small state category, one of the 30 wise senators we need.
Tuesday, December 24, 2019
My corner grocer runs a complete monetary system
Competes with the Fed, I mentioned him before.
His ledge is spiral notebook, finite block chain. We run up our tabs in columns, he scratches them out when paid. He can switch us to new notebook and put the old in dusty archives. We get to pay with ATM cards one almost monthly basis, and many of his customers are ad hoc ATM users, paying astronomical fees.
His regulars on credit buy regular, and inventory smoothes. There is about 1.5 points in banking gains in the trade, exchange costs. Any fair traded sandbox S/L pit with transaction costs near zero would work here, and an large variety of adaptations thereof. Smart card paves the way.
This is tax avoidance, escaping the seigniorage fees. PSST in action.
His ledge is spiral notebook, finite block chain. We run up our tabs in columns, he scratches them out when paid. He can switch us to new notebook and put the old in dusty archives. We get to pay with ATM cards one almost monthly basis, and many of his customers are ad hoc ATM users, paying astronomical fees.
His regulars on credit buy regular, and inventory smoothes. There is about 1.5 points in banking gains in the trade, exchange costs. Any fair traded sandbox S/L pit with transaction costs near zero would work here, and an large variety of adaptations thereof. Smart card paves the way.
This is tax avoidance, escaping the seigniorage fees. PSST in action.
Velocity hit bottom
Skew, folks. An economy that makes fewer but larger decisions, the bottom half of the economy relatively unbanked. Cause? My guess is the seigniorage tax filtering down into retail banking fees. We have become debt slaves.
The monetary zone has a limit to any ability of absorbing government monetary fees. At the bottom the corner grocer makes it work, and h cannot cover bank fees at 3% of price. This is where sandbox techniques fill in. We need the very lightweight intelligent cash card. Inelligence allows the corner grocer and customer to delay the Fed ledger until economies of scale justify the cost. Something the looks more like a credit card.
Correct on impeachment, but the Head of Supremes must verify
To be fair, Blakeman does write that the Senate will be required to take some action, but that it doesn’t have to be a trial. All McConnell needs to do, Blakeman writes, is to call a vote to dismiss before a trial even starts — and that would require only a simple majority, as it is just a procedural motion.Nothing ambiguous. The Senate votes to dismiss by majority.
The senators send a note to the Supremes. The Head of Supremes has to preside over the vote, but a simple, public notification is sufficient.
The US military seems to agree
US Must "Pursue Targeted Decoupling" From China's Economy, Says Former US Ambassador
But the realignment creates an endogenous conflict. The realignment includes writing off part of a large hardware base in the military, going back decades, a repricing. Senators from Alaska, Vermont and Wyoming gave up some earmarks to pay for the hardware. And current military earmarks are threatened by the realignment.
It is more deja vu, it is SDI all over again, it is the two bombers being phased out leaving us with B52, and invention from the 50s. It is Texas Space Cadets, much of that written off as losses. That causes disappearing earmarks.
The realignment is about securing our remote centers of AI, the AI sitting in UAVs must be secure, the betting bots, the doorbell video bots, speakers that spy on us. The Terminator Rise of the Machines is upon us. We have to get with the Matrix.
Despite the latest Sino-American phase one deal to ease tensions over trade, one former top US official is now calling for a decoupling between both economies, reported the South China Morning Post (SCMP).At the bottom of this problem is China and drones over the Asian Seas. That is connected to the Huweini sanctions, fear of bots, bundle of bytes, eight at a time. Everyone has to move their expensive hardware back from the front, in a thematic sense. A hardening of the AI streams, bounds set by government in military and civilian life.
Former US ambassador to India Ashley Tellis explains in a new book titled Strategic Asia 2020: US-China Competition for Global Influence -- that the world's two largest economies have entered a new period of sustained competition.
Tellis said Washington had developed a view that "China is today and will be for the foreseeable future the principal challenger to the US."
"The US quest for a partnership with China was fated to fail once China's growth in economic capabilities was gradually matched by its rising military power," he said.
But the realignment creates an endogenous conflict. The realignment includes writing off part of a large hardware base in the military, going back decades, a repricing. Senators from Alaska, Vermont and Wyoming gave up some earmarks to pay for the hardware. And current military earmarks are threatened by the realignment.
It is more deja vu, it is SDI all over again, it is the two bombers being phased out leaving us with B52, and invention from the 50s. It is Texas Space Cadets, much of that written off as losses. That causes disappearing earmarks.
The realignment is about securing our remote centers of AI, the AI sitting in UAVs must be secure, the betting bots, the doorbell video bots, speakers that spy on us. The Terminator Rise of the Machines is upon us. We have to get with the Matrix.
Venice is going, going,
Venice under water again
Mostly sinking land and high tides I hear, but global warming is part of it.
Mostly sinking land and high tides I hear, but global warming is part of it.
Susan Collins needs earmarks
Senators going home for Christmas.
From the small state, they need one thing and lots of it, you know what. So, senators see these national programs raise interest risk, their Christmas eamarks turn to lumps of coal.
The message gets mixed in passing the left right filter. It is more rural systems are enforced by the Constitution, they become a finite bound on national program volatility. Like being appointed for life from a rural aristocracy.
So, pay the fee, force the small state capitals to pick smarter senators who have a clue on this. Make the problem plainly known via the traditional trading pit. That s how the founders figured it in the document.
From the small state, they need one thing and lots of it, you know what. So, senators see these national programs raise interest risk, their Christmas eamarks turn to lumps of coal.
The message gets mixed in passing the left right filter. It is more rural systems are enforced by the Constitution, they become a finite bound on national program volatility. Like being appointed for life from a rural aristocracy.
So, pay the fee, force the small state capitals to pick smarter senators who have a clue on this. Make the problem plainly known via the traditional trading pit. That s how the founders figured it in the document.
Does the Fed seigniorage cause rate hikes?
Not right away. Tax avoidance takes time. But the banks will manage to match excess reserves to Treasuries held and drive down the seigniorage. Then Treasury is force onto the market and rates rise. After that, something else, unknown to me, happens.
The central bank always tends toward a standard two color pit, the seigniorage become relatively fat across all cycles. This is he process that drives shadow banking. The Fed system needs a technoogy upgrade.
The central bank always tends toward a standard two color pit, the seigniorage become relatively fat across all cycles. This is he process that drives shadow banking. The Fed system needs a technoogy upgrade.
So three color means a profit stream?
One way or the other, yes is a good answer.
And as a good anarchist, I don't care if government treats central banking as a profit center. I care that the government pretends otherwise. The government needs to treat the monetary fee as a tax, but you can feel free to call it a profit.
But we know how government ultimately collects the tax, a devaluation. Everything is still fine in my anarchist model, just bet the defaults ex ante, share the risk in estimating government losses going forward.
And as a good anarchist, I don't care if government treats central banking as a profit center. I care that the government pretends otherwise. The government needs to treat the monetary fee as a tax, but you can feel free to call it a profit.
But we know how government ultimately collects the tax, a devaluation. Everything is still fine in my anarchist model, just bet the defaults ex ante, share the risk in estimating government losses going forward.
Scary chart day from Zero Hedge
Zero Hedge is in the deja vu business, always teasing us with the old 'I told you so'. Hence the sarcastic humor when they miss. Great fun and informative, they are a forensic accounting blog.
Two economies with different uncertainty will not scale
“How Are Uncertainty and the Uncovered Interest Parity Condition Related?”
Sort of the definition of comparative advantage. The exporter with a local surplus of a good will contract to ship it out before the futures market can react. The exporter/importers have the inside information in this case, not the currency market.
But the inventory cycles are altered between the two economies because the uncertainty is a Nash equilibriating variable.. Any price comparison will not hold for longer than the same price comparison with a single monetary zone. One has to believe Uncle Milts pluck theorem.
It is in general going to be nearly impossible to predict future currency prices unless one side or the other has foul central banking. The classic case is oil prices are inverted from dollar value, for obvious reasons. That means oil exporters will be trading against the US safe rate, removing most of the hedge from the currency markets. OPEC economies scale as oil production scales, and that has been much different than how the USA economy scales, so OPEC has to set side reserves in Treasury bonds to carry them over during pluck periods. Part of oil exporting is emulating the yield curve of the trade partner. So OPEC constantly removes currency hedges with oil importers, mostly the USA and China. generating the Fama puzzle.
Japan has low market uncertainty internal, it can fire up the assembly lines in response to any foreign goods shortage, rarely runs out of intermediate inventory, this is a high rank economy, in sandbox terms. Oil economies would be of higher uncertainty, low rank economies. One can say the Japanese economy is more accurate, it can describe both the OPEC economies and the US economy. It is a trading and manufacturing economy. So Japanese traders will have the inside track on currency shifts many times.
Call it the Baumol process. The Japanese economy can absorb a disruption in OPEC with lower volatility than can the USA.
Japan has low market uncertainty internal, it can fire up the assembly lines in response to any foreign goods shortage, rarely runs out of intermediate inventory, this is a high rank economy, in sandbox terms. Oil economies would be of higher uncertainty, low rank economies. One can say the Japanese economy is more accurate, it can describe both the OPEC economies and the US economy. It is a trading and manufacturing economy. So Japanese traders will have the inside track on currency shifts many times.
Call it the Baumol process. The Japanese economy can absorb a disruption in OPEC with lower volatility than can the USA.
Monday, December 23, 2019
A tort lawsuit is not derived from common law
Most public nuisance suits are backed by misdemeanor offenses, and tort is the avenue for citizens to act as prosecutors, strongly implied in the Constitution.
If you park outside my house and shine your spotlight in my window to the extent of making my life miserable, then I can sue you for vandalism, if not misdemeanor assault. And in most cases, illegal dumping is already a crime, subject to private criminal suits.
So, I can claim too many hotter days and sue for co2 pollution? Is co2 pollution a misdemeanor? No, it is taxed, if it is taxed it is not illegal. We have a legal contradiction, unresolved.
If you park outside my house and shine your spotlight in my window to the extent of making my life miserable, then I can sue you for vandalism, if not misdemeanor assault. And in most cases, illegal dumping is already a crime, subject to private criminal suits.
So, I can claim too many hotter days and sue for co2 pollution? Is co2 pollution a misdemeanor? No, it is taxed, if it is taxed it is not illegal. We have a legal contradiction, unresolved.
A moment in history
NY Times Tells Historians It Won’t Issue Corrections To 1619 Project
The day the NY Times it is no longer a news paper.
It has become a cultural magazine, the culture of diversity. A subscription journal for professional diversifiers. It is the go to Journal of Woke. Our diversity school at Redneck U has a subscription, I'll red it some day, we what's up in woke.
The day the NY Times it is no longer a news paper.
It has become a cultural magazine, the culture of diversity. A subscription journal for professional diversifiers. It is the go to Journal of Woke. Our diversity school at Redneck U has a subscription, I'll red it some day, we what's up in woke.
On different charges
House counsel suggests Trump could be impeached again
If th Snante acquitted and Nancy resubmitted the same charges, then the Supremes would rule that original impeachment can not be undone, it still stands and has been processed. Resubmission would imply that the constitution allows repeated grabs for the same apple. No appeal process for either side was defined, and this is not judicial matter, court rules do not apply.
Where did it come from?
Royal Navy captures £3.3m haul of crystal meth in Arabian sea
And this little blurb about meth smuggled into Pakistan:
So, jihadis on meth are going to kill en mass, like the Mexican cartel members, most of their troops on meth. Iran does have a meth problem. The last thing the middle east needs is a bunch of religious warriors on meth. Even if you capture the nuts, they are no good for five years, they just go back to meth and that means jihadism. All those prison camps are really just meth rehab centers.
Meth precursor is in Iran, lots of it. WShousesit?
Sep 14, 2019 - He is one of thousands of meth addicts in Iraq, a country where drug problems .... trade as large quantities of crystal meth became available from neighboring Iran, ... This drugappears to be heavily used by fighters throughout the Middle East ...There is a scary thought of the day, jihadis are brain dead, they have a hole in their brains the size of a golf ball.
And this little blurb about meth smuggled into Pakistan:
“While there is no direct link between Iran and Saudi Arabia, we now believe that the drugs that are imported from Iran are channelled through Afghanistan and Pakistan,” says Senior Superintendent of Police (SSP) Sajjad Khan who led the investigation into busting one of thee several rings involved in smuggling ice. “Smuggled ice is then transported onwards to Qatar, Dubai and Saudi Arabia.”
So, jihadis on meth are going to kill en mass, like the Mexican cartel members, most of their troops on meth. Iran does have a meth problem. The last thing the middle east needs is a bunch of religious warriors on meth. Even if you capture the nuts, they are no good for five years, they just go back to meth and that means jihadism. All those prison camps are really just meth rehab centers.
Not true
Constitutionally, impeachment becomes official when the House sends word of that impeachment to the Senate, triggering a Senate trial.First, the Senate makes their own rules on when the House vote is accepted, and the Senate can change the rules. If the Senate or House together or separately deviated from the exact definition of the steps, then they are in violation, they have altered the Constitution.
The only word from the Constitution is that a House majority vote for impeachment is valid. Take this opposing view to Justice Roberts and tell Justice Roberts that a majority vote in the house does not constitute impeachment. Justice Roberts has no alternative unless the constitution refers to something other than the stated definition. Traditions do not matter, what matters is that the Senate trial happens after the House vote and before the president leaves office.
There is no contradictory theory, sorry. Justice Roberts, at this point, would be a fool to enter parliamentary rules of order into the Constitution, he would have his legacy banished into the ashes of stupidity. I presume Nancy read the part about a majority vote and expect she saw no other delay possibility in the Constitution, her duty is fulfilled.
If the Senate fails to try, the Senate is in violation. Can the Senate wait indefinitely? You bet, wait until the day before Trump exits office. But whatever the Senate does, it is internal to the Senate, the House is done and on vacation.
They call it DeFi
Informally we can still say sandbox.
This has been ging on far a couple of yeas, this DeFi. Dunno how many times I have repeated the basics, someone needs to write the book.
DeFi projects like Maker are actually different because the root of trust on top of which they are designed is an open, decentralized and censorship resistant blockchain platform. Here is the actual list of every loan Maker has ever given out, open for anyone to see. It’s also the first bank to tell you, Joe Schmo Public, its exact leverage ratio in real-time — a privilege that even the CEO of the hottest challenger bank probably doesn’t have.Maker runs a sandbox compatible S/L, evidently. I think they read my blog. A $150 million loan portfolio, like a small bank, but they will grow.
Like all DeFi projects, MakerDAO has never discriminated based on race, gender, nationality, income level or any other factor beyond financial qualification. A poor person in Vietnam borrowing a few dollars from Maker pays the same interest rate as a billionaire in America taking down a giant loan. Can your favorite FinTech offer the same?
Then there is the superfluidity of the DeFi ecosystem. Every user can move seamlessly from borrowing to saving to trading to market making to investing in synthetic assets, and from crypto exposure to dollars to gold to the S&P 500, all within a few minutes and for just pennies in fees.
This has been ging on far a couple of yeas, this DeFi. Dunno how many times I have repeated the basics, someone needs to write the book.
The House has the impeachment right, the Senate has trial mandate
Former Harvard Law School Professor Alan Dershowitz wrote on Thursday that he thinks it's "difficult to imagine anything more unconstitutional" than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., withholding the articles of impeachment against President Trump from a Senate trial.Clearly written, the House impeaches, the Senate tries in that order. The House cannot unvote the impeachment as long as Trump is in office. The Senate is now bound to try the president. There can be no parliamentary protocol that delays the Senate's duty to follow an accurate vote for impeachment, Tribe is wrong on this.
Dershowitz's comments came in response to Laurence Tribe, another Harvard Law Professor who called for Democrats to delay sending the articles to the Senate -- something Pelosi has already indicated she's willing to do.
"[Tribe] would withhold the trial until the Senate agreed to change its rules, or presumably until a new election put many more Democrats in the Senate. Under his proposal, there might never be a Senate trial, but the impeachment would stand as a final and permanent condemnation of President Trump," Dershowitz wrote in a Newsmax op-ed.
"It is difficult to imagine anything more unconstitutional, more violative of the intention of the Framers, more of a denial of basic due process and civil liberties, more unfair to the president and more likely to increase the current divisiveness among the American people. Put bluntly, it is hard to imagine a worse idea put forward by good people," he added.
Dershowitz need to sue the Senate on behalf of the citizen's, make it a class action lawsuit. This makes Robert's squirm because he has no constitutional provision that over rides the House vote to impeach. He is the presiding judge at the impeachment. The Robert's court would rule the Senate out of order and force a trial.
Tax avoidance
It responds suddenly, like it has inertia. It does, it is set along the longer route, from primary dealers back into the regulated banking side. There is a loop, and the sudden spike is a classic sloshing effect.
The Fed raised taxes on the repo market, in the greedy monpsony model. Under the model the delay is explainable, the loop discovered. The tax model should be as valid as any other model in snooping out the loop. The deja vu effect is Fed bankers discover the central banks are not a monopoly. They should drive that seigniorage fee to the long term share of a dominant monopsony, maybe a quarter to half point, close the loop.
It happens after you exit the trade
"Our investment strategy, which is cyclical in nature, has been challenged by the unprecedented 10-year economic expansion, decreased liquidity and dramatic changes in the hedge-fund industry."I have learned to bet against myself over the years. Like I have a couple of hard assets I want to dump. My plan to do so is likely to go awry, it always does.
Hence, I am prepared already to sell at lower than expected prices. The cascade of events will be triggered by the cost of a long term tenant exiting, and I want to skip that cost and cover some tax bills which also cascade, greasing the collapse of my property empire. And my worst of fears, this is all happening in California in the year of the property tax battle, and rent control threatening. If I do not get it done, the unions will be after my ass something fierce.
And I am not the only one.
Like encoding the SP500
When I did it last time, and printed the encoding tree.
There were two downturns in the series, and the encoding tree was unbalanced ass a result. That would be skew, and a tail risk. There were a small number of large events predicted, down turns. These events spread out one tail of a probability distribution.
There were two downturns in the series, and the encoding tree was unbalanced ass a result. That would be skew, and a tail risk. There were a small number of large events predicted, down turns. These events spread out one tail of a probability distribution.
Leads directly to shut down
Pay Workers to Leave Depressed Towns
Bloomberg opinion column starts ff with the right problem:
The senators of these small states will pry whatever earmark from where ever they can get it to keep their small populations viable. Hard bound means they cannot subdivide and reagglomerate. The trading pit starts there, a House to state capitals with a Senate swap.
Bloomberg opinion column starts ff with the right problem:
Then makes the fatal error:
Here’s an unsettling fact: Economic inequality between U.S. states can be greater than inequality between the U.S. and other countries. For example, GDP per person in the state of New York is about twice as high as in Mississippi. The gap between the U.S. as a whole and the nation of Slovakia is smaller.
Having said that, one promising place-based policy is relocation assistance. The idea is simple: Offer long-term unemployed workers — those who have been unsuccessfully looking for a job for at least six months — in lagging economic areas a federal subsidy to offset the costs of moving to a better-performing region.He forgets, the depressed towns carry two senate votes with them. This proposal pays the wrong group, it needs to pay the state capitals to work the problem themselves. Then it needs to manage the federal programs much better.
Moving is a major investment. Even workers who want to move to a city with improved economic prospects may be deterred by the need for so much up-front cash. The subsidy could help overcome this constraint.
It is attractive because it directly addresses the problem: If you’re worried about regions being permanently left behind, and if a key driver of regional disparities is too little worker mobility, then subsidize mobility so that you get more of it.
The senators of these small states will pry whatever earmark from where ever they can get it to keep their small populations viable. Hard bound means they cannot subdivide and reagglomerate. The trading pit starts there, a House to state capitals with a Senate swap.
That is a tidy business
CalWatch:
A survey of 2,800 U.S. colleges prepared by the Institute of International Education and the U.S. State Department underscores once again how much the budget of the University of California relies on high tuition and fees paid by foreign students.The survey showed California had far and away the most international students with 161,693. Some 42 percent of the students are from China and 13 percent are from India. Five UC campuses had at least 8,000 international students: UCLA (11,942), UC San Diego (10,652), UC Berkeley (10,063), UC Irvine (8,064) and UC Davis (8,048).The numbers illustrate that for all the criticism leveled at UC President Janet Napolitano in a 2016 report by state Auditor Elaine Howle, the UC system’s most important fiscal strategy relies on attracting foreign students. They pay about $44,000 annually, triple what in-state students pay.I will talk to the Redneck U board about grabbing some of that market.
Boeing missed the show
They fired their replacement CEO after three years. They missed the bot when the crisis happened, I been there, this was my business for a while. They needed a top down restructuring of their run time flight software development.
The main issue was distributed software which all had the most up to date flight characteristics so no distributed module can take a decision without fully, shared knowledge. On the PC it is right button click and it gives you options and causes for a sudden dive a few minutes after take off. Right button click, select 'disable' might work here.
Pilots and modules all tuned into the central AI brain,or its duplicate. The AI brain, in turn, reporting its best knowledge. No part is misinformed.
The main issue was distributed software which all had the most up to date flight characteristics so no distributed module can take a decision without fully, shared knowledge. On the PC it is right button click and it gives you options and causes for a sudden dive a few minutes after take off. Right button click, select 'disable' might work here.
Pilots and modules all tuned into the central AI brain,or its duplicate. The AI brain, in turn, reporting its best knowledge. No part is misinformed.
Tail risk is skew
If we could construct he monte carlo generator for the Treasury curve, it would have skew. And that is observable in the front end of the curve, it is flat. The tail risk is likely increasing with the rebellions, and decreasing s the rebellions subside. Wealth is betting the generational MMT.
But there is a greater skewing event due, the state adjustment, the new deal between House and Senate. This includes the tax battle being waged by New York and California, and the fear of liquidity shortages in these large states.
Add in the potential for large federal bailouts of pensions. And a potential Trump blunder in the middle east All of this is a 'been there, done that'. We have a repeatable history here. The predicted case is a long period of mild deflation and the sidecase is half the Nixon shock.
But there is a greater skewing event due, the state adjustment, the new deal between House and Senate. This includes the tax battle being waged by New York and California, and the fear of liquidity shortages in these large states.
Add in the potential for large federal bailouts of pensions. And a potential Trump blunder in the middle east All of this is a 'been there, done that'. We have a repeatable history here. The predicted case is a long period of mild deflation and the sidecase is half the Nixon shock.
Mayor Pete got the center and Liz is stuck
Buttigieg Campaign Accused of 'Brazen' Influence Peddling
Obama gone to donors to boost her luck
Trump has he brains of a hockey puck
With a little bit of work this song won't suck
Obama gone to donors to boost her luck
Trump has he brains of a hockey puck
With a little bit of work this song won't suck
Sunday, December 22, 2019
The simplest sandbox banker
The simplest two color liquidity allocator. I suppose one color could derive from a commodity banker, assume it trades against a finite, known resource. But I digress..
But their is no profit taker, in the two color. The pit boss account is provably bounded. Traders are risk equalized with free entry and exit. OK, there is a variation of congestion priced entry and exit, here I assume absolutely free, and congestion is naturally controlled by pit boss delays in bet processing. Like bitcoin, computer limits are a feed back loop yielding a single fixed point. This is the timeless banker.
In central banking traders will have to bet the government cycles. There is a loop, we give government a monetary power, but we expect government to be a bit unstable for it. We accept the instability, we have quantized the side lobes, gone quarking. Out pit boss has become a gluon. The cost of central banking becomes higher, we have ;legalized the cycle. But we like it a bit, it has a rhythm, time has more meaning.
And we can see that, given trivial transaction costs, the two color system spends the least resources on the pit boss account. If transaction costs become noticeable, traders want government guarantees for money and we end up with central banker, we have to jump the Markov tree. But we do it. It is a mix.
But their is no profit taker, in the two color. The pit boss account is provably bounded. Traders are risk equalized with free entry and exit. OK, there is a variation of congestion priced entry and exit, here I assume absolutely free, and congestion is naturally controlled by pit boss delays in bet processing. Like bitcoin, computer limits are a feed back loop yielding a single fixed point. This is the timeless banker.
In central banking traders will have to bet the government cycles. There is a loop, we give government a monetary power, but we expect government to be a bit unstable for it. We accept the instability, we have quantized the side lobes, gone quarking. Out pit boss has become a gluon. The cost of central banking becomes higher, we have ;legalized the cycle. But we like it a bit, it has a rhythm, time has more meaning.
And we can see that, given trivial transaction costs, the two color system spends the least resources on the pit boss account. If transaction costs become noticeable, traders want government guarantees for money and we end up with central banker, we have to jump the Markov tree. But we do it. It is a mix.
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