No blue bar Q4

We look to have the usual 2.1%, possibly 1.9%, definitely above zero. No sudden mass layoffs. One small bout of inflation with oil holding, up 10%. The curve is still flat on the short end. This is an economy that is getting by, kicking can, staying just above the doldrums, nothing more.
Charts from Mish.

My gray swan I am starting to watch? The tax battles going on, states vying against the Swamp for income and housing taxes. These battles end in very last minute deals, just before both parties get the willies. We get some unknown tax jolt from a private meeting of the elders.

A sever government stumble in New York seems more likely than in California, at the moment. Cuomo has cause for desperation.  Tax fuel the exit. Illinois disease. But taxes and technology in NYC fuels a potential sudden stop in NYC first, one of those skews that is hard to avoid. The local tax base there depend on the financial district, like Silicon Valley taxes fuel Sacramento, out here. But New York it is all endogenous, wealth sudden exit from exactly the came community the hires the poor. The technology makes an easier move to the South or Southwest.