If we could construct he monte carlo generator for the Treasury curve, it would have skew. And that is observable in the front end of the curve, it is flat. The tail risk is likely increasing with the rebellions, and decreasing s the rebellions subside. Wealth is betting the generational MMT.
But there is a greater skewing event due, the state adjustment, the new deal between House and Senate. This includes the tax battle being waged by New York and California, and the fear of liquidity shortages in these large states.
Add in the potential for large federal bailouts of pensions. And a potential Trump blunder in the middle east All of this is a 'been there, done that'. We have a repeatable history here. The predicted case is a long period of mild deflation and the sidecase is half the Nixon shock.
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