I have my doubts

Euro Forecasters See a World-Beating Run in 2020

After two years of setbacks, the euro is enjoying a wave of much-needed investor optimism as 2019 draws to a close.

The shared currency will rally more than 4% against the dollar in 2020 in the world’s best foreign-exchange performance, according to the median estimates of analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Forecasters see it benefiting from an improving global economic outlook and fading political tensions.

Betting on euro gains is among Morgan Stanley’s top trades for the new year, a view shared by analysts at UBS Wealth Management and Credit Agricole, among others. Options markets also signal improved confidence in the common currency, which touched a one-week high Friday as broad risk sentiment picked up on signs of improvingU.S.-China trade relations.

The forecast is likely based in the inverse correlation between oil prices and dollar value.  But the prediction does not take into account our ability to frack.  The dollar will drop, but the oil frackers may have already signed future delivery contracts to cover the dollar shorts. The prediction coming true, but the dollar shorts too crowded to make the profit..