I have a simple economic model

Let us cal it the probabilistic grammar.

My economic model of the USA says 300 million people conspire to make Fred charts, and they have rules.  The rule here for this chart is simple. The squiggly blue line goes up and a blue bar follows.  And, it seems, the blue bars fall on election cycles lately.  The line tells me that good times result when the blue declines over a few years, as in the late 90s.

Will that blue squiggly slowly decline for another few years?  If so, we miss a blue bar, an improbable event.  The odds here, simple betting from  the past, tell us a mild blue bar is on the horizon.