We got a 2.2 gdp mark in q1, so that is the first q1 with no tax hit in a while. We will see a q2 gdp of 2.5 after revisions, housing got hit by interest charges.
But, bonds went to 3.10, Italy wobbled, and bond swung 30 basis points, back down. A treasury curve inversion is out of the feds hands, rush to safety will invert the curve.
I heard a 4.0 prediction, but that boost likely did not include the sudden rise in dollar and the revision down in gdp that results.
Fed has no business raising IOR in the environment. We are importing gobs of deflation at the moment. Do nothing until Italy finds some small balance.
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