Saturday, November 10, 2018

About that election

It was the usual post presidential rebound.  Happened to Obama, Clinton, Trump, Reagan.  Normal in late cycle expansion when folks rebel against high interest charges.

Interest charges have jump for everyone by 1/3 to 1/5 over the last three years.  Hit the housing, means a shorter planning horizon, locks people out.

Municipalities are rolling over extra debt they  acquired six years ago, at unexpectedly higher rates. They are hit with low pension returns, and many have raised taxes.  California is losing a large piece of income tax as capital gains slow down.  High interest charges is what the rebellion in DC  is about, no government discretionary spending anywhere.

Mixed government can be good, is can lead to sequestering and delay the onset of recession.

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