2019 recession prediction from transportation

We should note that the Cass Freight Index was one of the first freight flow indicators to turn positive (in October 2016) and confirm our prediction of a recovery in the U.S. economy. As we try to navigate the ebb and flow of the economy, we don’t pretend to have any ‘secret sauce’ or incredibly complex models that have exhaustively analyzed every data point available. Instead, we place our trust in the simple notion that the movement of tangible goods is the heartbeat of the economy, and that tracking the volume and velocity of those goods has proven to be one of the most reliable methods of predicting change because of the adequate amount of forewarning that exists. Beyond our concern that the Cass Freight Shipments Index is negative on a YoY basis for the eighth month in a row: 

• We are concerned about the severe declines in international airfreight volumes (especially in Asia) and the ongoing swoon in railroad volumes, especially in auto and building materials.

• We see the weakness in spot market pricing for transportation services, especially in trucking, as consistent with and a confirmation of the negative trend in the Cass Shipments Index; 

• As volumes of chemical shipments have lost momentum, our concerns of the global slowdown spreading to the U.S. and the trade dispute reaching a ‘point of no return’ from an economic perspective grow. Bottom line, more and more data are indicating that this is the beginning of an economic contraction. If a contraction occurs, then the Cass Shipments Index will have been one of the first early indicators once again.

Hat tip to Mish for following this.
Note, velocity and volume of goods movement is what they watch. Demand for transportation has fallen for eight months, truck sales are way down.