Friday, August 16, 2019

No says Menzie

Does the Safe-Haven Aspect of the US Explain Declining Treasury Rates


And he is right. His evidence:


Menzie shows a representative sample, the complete spectra. All possible solutions should be contained in this bounded set. Every member of the set shows low rates.

Menzie knows about partial equilibrium, and is careful not to get caught.

How could Trump have caused this? If the sstem was unbalanced, and the US dollar was the reserve currency, then we would have currency bankers operating with a partial equilibrium, no representative sample. A system with one reserve currency will cycle, it is not maximum entropy, multiple solutions will alternate as optimum, it will partial equibrium its way onto motion, it will not be a wiener process.

This is mathematical, closely related to that 48 page proof I occasionally plow through. A representative sample extracts the compressed version with the co-primes combined. Right out of that paper, that paper is something else, it will be around for a long time. The whole sequence of mathematics, starting in the 1800s, on up, was traced, this is the heart of number theory making breakthroughs.

When I look at these problems, in my mind are generators. Generators that can be scaled by compression. Our best representation of a generator is a yield curve, I see that as the complete sequence of a value added net, then I am thinking how many of these value nets are scalable to each other. Most do not scale, and their differences observable and embodied in insurance in currency trades. The mathematics of PSST.

If we are entropy maximizing, (we eliminate redundancies (which turn out to be coprime sequence)), then any complete representative sample should solve to the same unique form. So, if I know something close to a complete aggregate time series, I can work with that and get Menzies result. If I know my stuff, I can get the sparse spectra, the algebraic solution set. Then, the algebra says we cycle on presidential boundaries, always have. Presidential boundaries have to meet bounds for the complete sequence, and it is pretty easy to divide eight into a generation time span. We will meet ur boundary conditions, sum up both the recessional and generational expenses in one transaction, our MMT moment.

The currency bankers job is to literally make divide work, via the accounting system. Divide works because S/L is mapped to a generator to within a known finite error bound.  Channel packing is a proicess of doing divide among semi-independent sequences, it is done  indirectly with the queue management process in the pits. When queues are stable, the Tanh ratio works, is my almost proven conjecture.

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