Somewhere around 2016-1016 there is a pause in the current trend. I see it in 1995, 1985 and 1976.That is an energy effect, it is semi-repeatable it is a particle, a fundamental, has momentum.
So, I ask, how do a bunch of independent workers spot a mid-cycle between the past and future recessions? What does a subset of important worker know? They change jobs about that time, I suspect.
I have a theory. I think these are the bailees, the special interests that got bailed in the prior recession and they know the bailout has warn out, they have inside information. The mid cycle shuffle, they leave a set of zombie companies for the better companies, and the zombie collection eventually takes us into another recession. Call it the bailed out workers motion.
In sandbox terminology, these workers can sample the job market at twice the rate of the aggregate, they are working an arbitrage, an unclosed loop in the generator.. To close the loop and price it, legislators need be up to speed on this, they are not. The 30 wise senators can spot the trend, and drill down to the unsustainable, and do a better deal with the House. But we have to pay them a price, we have to mostly fund their state capitals.
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