We will be allocating more coin tosses o the covid problem. Those are liquidity losses to other sectors. In essence we have dropped down a notch on the Markov 3 tuples, this is equivalent to switching the covid axis up in priority. There is a transaction fee, the covid distancing function. This forces home production, buy in bulk, minimize transactions. Velocity drops in both shadow and regulated banking.
The covid transaction costs are now a value added chain, allocating covid social distancing costs. In school districts the chain is adjusted to apportion covid risk fairly. Restaurants, retail outlets. A lot of this is more over the counter delivery and fewer public queues.
The solutions are facing bottlenecks in production for antibody, and oddly, the infection rate is too low to get efficacy measurement on the first generation vaccines. Then we are coping on what is likely a seasonal issue, so we need production flexibility in the mix. This is a rebuilt bitotech market, a three year job.
This is not a second wave, it is really the first wave following its unique path. It leaves a race of preparedness, ex post. So the truly second wave might be next year. Mostly we want to look at New York and other big cities for a repeat. We get a good look at immunity length. We need more trials aimed at high risk jobs so we get efficacy measured.
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