Monday, March 7, 2016

Housing supply down, demand up

This chart comes from BI

The sudden jump, in the blue lione, that is trade rebalancing.  It was somewhat unexpected because the flows from China are subject to sudden FX fixing by the Commies. 

Supply is out of sync. So, lumber prices are down a bit,  that is out of sync, and we have a shortage of construction workers.  Housing here got blindsided, upward, by Chinese FX fixing. We are scrambling to increase production, but uncertain about future demand flows.  Hence an upsurge in construction workers confounded BLS a bit.  Right now, this is the economy; autos will not hold.  A sudden stop and we get a mild recession. Mild because these are known unknowns.

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