Sunday, December 23, 2018

Central banks on the move

Bitcoin Above $4,000 Again as Top Cryptocurrencies See Gains Across the Board

My bottom was 3500  on this, I called it when bitcoin was 7000. In time of stress, central bankers make off equilibrium moves and insiders flood the block chains.

Nothing much the central bankers can do since the bots already are moving on to replace traditional lending.  Central banking is on its last legs, I think.  There is no way the central banks can cover the nearly 8 trillion in bailout loans on the books. The trade here is accuracy vs swiftness.  The governments have gotten into so much debt that only a very long can kick saves the day, that is, operating way up the hyperbolic curve with huge reserves. Everyone knows the margin of safety  is small, the time scale large and technology looming.

Up on the curve means in a restricted flow environment where we apply cosh^2-sinh^2=1,  the cosh are deposits, the sinch are loans. The 1.0 is margin (market uncertainty normalized to one).  Up on the curve, there is little elasticity, the values cosh and sinch are large.   In order to bring both down, someone will take losses, heat will generate. No one wants to mark to near term market, everyone dependent on the central banking system is betting the long term can kick.

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